Key Highlights:

• Annihilating the Competition: In Moto 1, Haiden Deegan didn’t just lead—he dominated. His recorded fastest lap time was quicker than any other rider’s theoretical best (Lap 99) time, and his own Lap 99 time was 0.5 seconds faster than his closest competitor.
  
  
• Triumph on the Rise: Jalek Swoll is making waves on the Triumph, standing out as the only 250 rider to score above 90 in both motos. Coming off an overall podium last weekend, Swoll earned the highest consistency score of any rider in either class.
  
  
• A Decade Off: Malcolm Stewart was on fire in Moto 2, shaving 2.5 seconds off his fastest lap time from Moto 1 and dropping his average lap time by 1.3 seconds per lap. Mookie’s strong season in both Supercross and Outdoors promises big things for 2025.

• Unwavering Speed: Chase Sexton once again proved why he’s a force to be reckoned with, setting the fastest lap times with authority. In both motos, his fastest lap was 0.6 seconds quicker, and even after a crash, his average lap time in Moto 2 was still over half a second faster per lap.
  
  
• Rain Rain Go Away: Downpours during qualifying meant the fastest times of the day emerged during the races. In the 450s, Chase Sexton set the quickest qualifying time of 2:01.044, but he shattered that in Moto 1 with a scorching 1:56.314. Even more impressive, the top 5 riders in Moto 1 all beat Sexton’s qualifying lap.

Budds Creek in Mechanicsville, Maryland, just a half-hour from Washington D.C., is one of the most iconic stops in the AMA Pro Motocross series. This legendary track, known for its European inspired natural terrain, hosted the MX des Nations in 2007 and has been a staple of pro racing for 35 straight years.

450 Analysis:

Once again, this weekend was a tale of two motos. Hunter Lawrence, riding with newfound confidence, showed everyone why he's a former 250 champion. In the first moto, although Aaron Plessinger snagged the holeshot, it didn’t take long for Hunter to take over the lead. Once he got out front, he was unstoppable. Chase Sexton, despite a rough start, managed to close in on Hunter towards the end, but a small tip-over with three laps to go allowed Hunter to secure the win. Hunter has now straight-up beaten Sexton in two straight first motos. 

In Moto 2, Sexton was on a mission. He dominated the track and the stats, building on his season of strong second motos. Even a minor tip-over couldn't slow him down, and he took the win with ease. Hunter finished in second, and just like last week, the two riders traded moto wins, but Sexton took the overall victory. Barring any major problems, Sexton should win his first 450 Pro Motocross Championship next weekend.

Eli Tomac made his much-anticipated return to outdoor racing, and he looked fantastic in the first moto, especially considering it's been almost two full seasons since his last outdoors. Unfortunately, a bad start in Moto 2 left him with a less-than-stellar result. But with the final round coming up, it’s safe to say that fans are in for a treat.

Track Breakdown:

 

The track maps show the riders with the fastest average segment times in each of the five timed sections. While there were some issues with the live timing this weekend, particularly in segments 2, 3, and 5, the data we have still highlights the top performers.

Once again, Hunter Lawrence showed incredible speed in Moto 1, but couldn't quite match that in Moto 2. Whether it's the incredible fitness of Sexton, or lack-thereof from Hunter,  it’s clear that Sexton has been the stronger rider in Moto 2 for most of the season. The Moto 2 track map was a KTM sweep, with Sexton holding the top spot in four of five segments. Notably, Sexton was particularly fast in segment 5 all day, where he made two crucial passes on Plessinger during Moto 2. His segment times in Moto 2 were actually faster in three of the five sections compared to Moto 1, proving that he's untouchable in Moto 2. 

Moto 1: 

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	H. Lawrence	33.619	32.541	87.0
2	C. Sexton	25.915	25.057	79.2
3	H. Lawrence	19.714	19.304	81.0
4	H. Lawrence	27.879	27.233	87.8
5	C. Sexton	12.331	11.963	80.5

 Moto 2:

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	C. Sexton	33.493	32.746	83.8
2	A. Plessinger	26.130	25.135	77.5
3	C. Sexton	19.638	19.078	71.9
4	C. Sexton	27.992	27.428	91.1
5	C. Sexton	12.213	11.911	80.5

 

 

Lap Time Breakdown:

 

The histogram above breaks down the lap times from the two motos, grouping them into bins for easier comparison. Overall, lap times between the two motos were pretty similar, with the median lap time in Moto 2 being just 0.08 seconds slower per lap compared to Moto 1. However, the fastest riders did see a slight drop, with their times slowing by about 0.5 seconds from Moto 1 to Moto 2.

• Due to some rain during qualifying, the fastest times of the day actually came from racing, which isn't normal. Chase Sexton set the fastest qualifying time at 2:01.044, but he blew that away in Moto 1 with a time of 1:56.314. In fact, the top 5 riders in Moto 1 all posted faster lap times than Sexton’s qualifying time.
• While Moto 2 lap times were nearly equal to Moto 1, the track became easier to manage as it dried out. As a result, consistency scores for the 450 class increased by an average of 4 points in Moto 2.
• Despite coming up short in Moto 1, Chase Sexton still dominated the lap times. Out of the 16 timed laps in Moto 1, Sexton recorded the fastest lap 10 times, while Hunter Lawrence had 5. In Moto 2, Sexton went on to set the fastest lap 12 out of 16 times, with Hunter managing just 2. Surprisingly, Justin Cooper clocked the fastest lap twice in Moto 2, and Aaron Plessinger managed to set the fastest lap once in Moto 1.

450 Moto 1 Top 5 Average Lap Times 

RIDER	MOTO	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
H. Lawrence	M1	1:59.536	1:56.990	1:56.30	88.6
C. Sexton	M1	1:59.885	1:56.314	1:55.63	85.8
A. Plessinger	M1	2:01.756	1:58.392	1:57.97	86.8
E. Tomac	M1	2:02.482	1:59.013	1:58.16	84.4
J. Anderson	M1	2:03.245	2:00.406	1:59.05	88.1

450 Moto 2 Top 5 Average Lap Times 

RIDER	MOTO	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
C. Sexton	M2	2:00.059	1:57.760	1:56.31	93.3
H. Lawrence	M2	2:00.679	1:58.398	1:57.56	92.5
A. Plessinger	M2	2:01.502	1:58.511	1:57.64	89.8
J. Cooper	M2	2:01.702	1:59.753	1:58.63	90.8
M. Stewart	M2	2:01.915	1:58.671	1:58.23	80.4

 

Overall Performance:

• Chase Sexton once again delivered an outstanding performance, setting the fastest lap times with authority. In both motos, his fastest lap was 0.6 seconds quicker, and his average lap time in Moto 2 was over half a second faster per lap.
• Malcolm Stewart shined in Moto 2, improving his fastest lap time by 2.5 seconds compared to Moto 1 and dropping his average lap time by 1.3 seconds per lap. Mookie is enjoying a fantastic season, excelling in both Supercross and Outdoors, and we are looking forward to 2025.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency Scores:

• Chase Sexton was unstoppable in Moto 2. Even going down in a corner barely affected his lap times. His LITPro consistency score for Moto 2 was the highest. Lawrence and Cooper were the only other riders to score in the 90s during Moto 2.
• For the second time this season, Christian Craig proved to be the most consistent rider on the track. The seasoned veteran might not have the pace of the leaders, but he’s finding smooth, reliable lines through the track.  

Lap 99 Analysis:

*Lap 99 takes each riders' best segment time regardless of lap and combines them as a theoretical best lap time.

• Chase Sexton’s fastest lap in Moto 1 was so quick that Hunter Lawrence’s theoretical best lap time (Lap 99) matched Chase’s actual fastest lap. Sexton’s Lap 99 time was a staggering 1:55.630. He didn’t stop there; his Lap 99 time in Moto 2 was 1.2 seconds faster than anyone else.
• Eli Tomac looked strong in Moto 1, but clearly struggled in Moto 2. Despite a poor start in Moto 1 (17th on the opening lap), his Lap 99 time in Moto 2 was a 2:01.667—2.5 seconds slower than his actual fastest time from Moto 1. Whether this was due to his thumb injury, battling through the pack, or a combination of both, it was clear he wasn’t at his best.

Lap Time Distribution for Top 10 

The box and whisker plot above shows the lap time distribution by moto for the top 10 fastest riders. Generally, a tighter box indicates a more consistent performance. For instance, Chase Sexton was the most consistent rider in Moto 2, a big improvement from his lackluster consistency in Moto 1. 

As mentioned earlier, Malcolm Stewart was significantly faster in Moto 2, but it was Justin Cooper who really stood out with a strong rebound. After a frightening crash on the opening lap of Moto 1, Cooper made an impressive recovery, finishing 4th in Moto 2 and securing 10th overall. Justin Cooper has been a standout in his rookie season, and Star Racing should be proud of his performance.

Power Rankings:

Bringing it all together, we can rank the riders based on their performance. The table below highlights the key metrics used to determine the weekend's top riders, which play a big role in shaping the weekly power rankings.

  *Coloring from red-to-green only highlights disparity between top 10 and not representative of the entire field. All of these riders are near the top compared to the rest of the riders. 

Despite all my rhetoric about Chase Sexton’s incredible speed, his poor starts, crashes in both motos, and inconsistency in Moto 1 hurt his power ranking score. Hunter Lawrence took top spot in this week’s power rankings with 98.4 points. Sexton followed in second with 96.1 points, and Plessinger rounded out the top three with 90.8 points.

Just as a reminder, these rankings are based on a formula that normalizes the stats above, with specific weights applied to each one.

However, in the cumulative power rankings, Sexton still holds a comfortable lead as we approach the final round. At this point in the season, the top 10 hasn’t seen many changes, though Freddie Noren did manage to climb back onto the list.

Cumulative Power Rankings:

Rank	Rider	Power Ranking	Change
1	Chase Sexton	97.5	NC
2	Hunter Lawrence	94.8	NC
3	Aaron Plessinger	90.7	NC
4	Jason Anderson	88.4	NC
5	Justin Cooper	82.4	NC
6	Dylan Ferrandis	77.6	NC
7	Malcom Stewart	76.8	NC
8	Christian Craig	76.6	NC
9	Freddie Noren	67.6	NR
10	Phill Nicoletti	61.8	NC

 

250 Analysis:

The big storyline heading into Budds Creek was whether Haiden Deegan could clinch the championship a week early. And in Moto 1, he did just that. In his own words, he dominated the field, showing why he’s held the red plate all season. Deegan took a convincing win in Moto 1, wrapped up his first-ever pro championship, and celebrated in style. Levi Kitchen, the only other rider with a mathematical chance at the title, was battling an illness and faded from 1st to 3rd as the race progressed. Tom Vialle was quietly impressive in both motos but was held back by poor starts.

In Moto 2, Levi Kitchen grabbed the holeshot and led every lap of the race. However, it was too little, too late—Deegan had already secured the championship and didn’t push too hard after getting stuck in 11th place for most of the race, behind his teammate Nick Romano. Other top riders, like Chance Hymas, had a mixed day. Hymas looked strong but struggled to control his speed, crashing hard while in 2nd place on the last lap of Moto 1 but bouncing back to finish 2nd in Moto 2. Tom Vialle, once again, recovered from a poor start to finish 3rd.

Despite Haiden Deegan’s dominance in Moto 1, his 'annihilating' speed was surprisingly concentrated on just one half of the track—but it was more than enough to secure the win. What was even more surprising was Ty Masterpool setting the fastest average time in Segment 3. Masterpool got caught up in a first-turn pile-up, leaving him nearly in last place, a spot he's become all too familiar with lately. However, he charged through the pack once again, finishing 11th. As the 2nd fastest qualifier, Masterpool clearly had the speed to move up, but that first corner crash derailed his entire day.

In Moto 2, with Deegan taking a more relaxed, celebratory ride, it was Levi Kitchen and Tom Vialle who dominated the track. Special mention goes to Pierce Brown for clocking the fastest time in Segment 3. Kitchen really found his stride in the second moto, tapping into the speed and endurance he lacked in Moto 1.

Moto 1:

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	H. Deegan	33.898	32.721	75.2
2	T. Vialle	26.442	25.636	78.9
3	T. Masterpool	20.225	19.712	81.2
4	H. Deegan	28.840	27.837	80.6
5	H. Deegan	12.808	12.421	82.8

 Moto 2:

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	L. Kitchen	34.249	33.092	72.1
2	L. Kitchen	26.341	25.534	68.8
3	P. Brown	20.096	19.408	77.6
4	T. Vialle	28.147	27.383	81.9
5	T. Vialle	12.390	12.037	77.9

Lap Time Breakdown:

The two motos were surprisingly close in terms of stats. As shown in the histogram above, lap times were nearly identical. Although the fastest lap in Moto 2 was a full second slower than in Moto 1, the average lap time was actually 0.5 seconds faster, likely due to the track drying out. However, as lap times improved, consistency took a hit. On average, riders dropped 2 points in consistency between Moto 1 and Moto 2, though many of the top riders were more consistent in the second moto.

Of the 16 timed laps in both motos, Haiden Deegan set the fastest lap 8 times in Moto 1, while Jalek Swoll and Levi Kitchen each set the fastest lap twice. In Moto 2, Tom Vialle and Chance Hymas led the charge with 6 and 4 of the fastest laps, respectively. Despite leading the entire race, Levi Kitchen only set the fastest lap in 2 of the 16 timed laps in Moto 2. The remaining fast laps throughout the day were scattered among riders like RJ Hampshire, Joey Savatgy, Jordan Smith, Pierce Brown, and Ty Masterpool.

250 Moto 1 Top 5 Average Lap Times 

RIDER	MOTO	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
H. Deegan	M1	2:02.614	1:57.454	1:57.08	79.0
T. Vialle	M1	2:03.138	2:02.138	1:59.15	85.3
L. Kitchen	M1	2:03.532	1:58.653	1:57.56	79.7
J. Savatgy	M1	2:03.712	2:00.912	1:59.56	91.4
C. Hymas	M1	2:03.712	1:58.565	1:57.87	73.9

250 Moto 2 Top 5 Average Lap Times 

RIDER	MOTO	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
L. Kitchen	M2	2:01.948	1:59.424	1:58.06	87.3
T. Vialle	M2	2:02.047	1:59.546	1:58.94	91.0
C. Hymas	M2	2:02.101	1:58.622	1:58.37	89.3
J. Swoll	M2	2:02.925	1:59.871	1:59.74	90.7
P. Brown	M2	2:02.992	1:59.552	1:59.82	85.3

Overall Performance:

• Haiden Deegan set the standard in Moto 1, with his fastest lap time clocking in 1.2 seconds quicker than the next closest rider. His average lap time was also impressive, being 0.5 seconds faster per lap.
• Despite poor starts in both motos, Tom Vialle was clearly quick at Budds Creek. He posted the second-fastest average lap time in both races while fighting his way through the top 10.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency Scores:

• Jalek Swoll has been making the Triumph shine. Coming off an overall podium last weekend, Swoll was the only rider to score above 90 in both motos and had the highest overall consistency score of any rider in either class.
• Tom Vialle wasn’t just fast while battling through the top 10 in Moto 2—he was also consistent, earning the highest consistency score among the top 5 riders in that moto.

Lap 99 Analysis:

*Lap 99 takes each riders' best segment time regardless of lap and combines them as a theoretical best lap time.

• Haiden Deegan’s fastest lap time was quicker than any other rider’s Lap 99 time in Moto 1, with his Lap 99 time being 0.5 seconds faster than the next closest competitor. 
• Tom Vialle’s theoretical best lap time in Moto 1 was 3 seconds faster than his actual fastest lap, highlighting just how tough it can be to fight through a pack of fast and talented riders. With a clear track, he would have been even faster.

Lap Time Distribution for Top 10

Power Rankings:

*Coloring from red-to-green only highlights disparity between top 10 and not representative of the entire field. All of these riders are near the top compared to the rest of the riders. 

With his second straight overall win, Levi Kitchen took the top power ranking score this weekend with 95.6 points, he was followed by Vialle (93.0) and Hymas (90.4).