Key Highlights:

• Critical Starting Position: The only two riders outside of Chase Sexton to snag a fastest average segment time were Jason Anderson and Aaron Plessinger. Both secured the holeshot and led parts of the race, demonstrating that a good start can significantly impact the entire race.
  
  
• Racing Last Doesn't Mean a Thing: Despite the rough conditions in Moto 2, Haiden Deegan set the fastest lap time of either 250 moto and averaged 1 second per lap faster. However, this speed came at the cost of consistency. 
  
  
• Quietly Consistent: Pierce Brown had a standout day. Not only did the GasGas rider crack the top five fastest average lap times in Moto 2, but he also scored over 94 points in both motos on LITPro 10-Lap consistency scores.
  
  
• Unstoppable: Chase Sexton is a force to be reckoned with. He set the fastest lap time in both 450 motos, averaging 0.7 seconds per lap faster in Moto 1 and over a second per lap faster in Moto 2. He also held 12 out of 15 fastest laps across both motos.
  
  
• Separating from the Pack: Although racing in the last moto of the day, the top three 250 riders—Deegan, Vialle, and Shimoda—not only adapted to the challenging conditions but thrived. Each set their fastest lap time of the day in Moto 2, while the rest of the field slowed down by nearly 3.5 seconds.

Nestled in the rolling hills and green forests of Southwest Washington, Washougal offers some of the most scenic and iconic racing in all of America. Hosting races since 1970, this legendary venue, with its gnarly natural terrain and infamous whoops to the finish line, never fails to deliver excitement.

450 Analysis:

As the gates dropped and riders launched up Horsepower Hill, Aaron Plessinger took the lead in Moto 1, determined to end his teammate Chase Sexton's 5 moto winning streak. Buried in the back half of the top 10 and even on the ground at one point, Sexton steadily made his way to the front. His current win streak isn't flashy starts or leading every lap from the front; it's about consistency, solid riding, and fitness. Sexton showcased his fitness and took the lead late in the moto, securing his sixth straight moto win.

Moto 2 was almost a repeat of Moto 1, but this time Jason Anderson snagged the holeshot, aiming to end Sexton's dominance. However, Chase had a much better start and quickly moved to the front, cruising to his third consecutive 1-1 overall finish and seventh moto win in a row. Championship contender Hunter Lawrence struggled in both motos, with a late tip-over in Moto 1 ruining his podium chances for the weekend. Hunter’s fourth overall marked the first time a Honda hasn't been on the podium since 2021. Anderson and Plessinger rounded out the podium.

 

Track Breakdown:

 

 

Although each track has a minimum width regulation set by the AMA, the layout, prep conditions, and even weather can drastically affect how it rides. Washougal is historically tough for passing and often feels narrow through the wooded areas. The track maps above show this well. The only two riders who challenged Sexton's dominance were the ones who got the holeshots: Plessinger in Moto 1 and Anderson in Moto 2. Surprisingly, Sexton was only the fastest in Segment 5 for both motos but still dominated most everywhere on the track, as lap times later show.

Unfortunately, the tech we use to track riders didn't work well for the 450 class in the first two segments. Only about 30% of the rider times were recorded in Segments 1 and 2. While we likely missed some of the fastest times, the average fastest time should still be accurate. This is marked on the tables below. If you see an (*) on a consistency score, it means fewer than 10 iterations were available for analysis, which also brings the score down.

Moto 1: 

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	A. Plessinger	28.783	28.158	48.8*
2	C. Sexton	17.131	16.813	44.8*
3	A. Plessinger	32.140	31.263	80.0
4	C. Sexton	24.146	23.229	81.0
5	C. Sexton	38.502	37.538	83.4

 Moto 2:

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	C. Sexton	29.630	28.922	40.9*
2	J. Anderson	17.768	17.317	42.6*
3	C. Sexton	32.113	31.073	84.2
4	J. Anderson	24.421	23.871	82.8
5	C. Sexton	39.083	37.831	83.4

 

 

Lap Time Breakdown:

 

With the 450s airing on NBC again this weekend, they went first for both Motos. This usually means faster lap times and more consistency as the experienced riders tackle a better-prepped track. This week was no different. Despite Hunter Lawrence setting the fastest qualifying time of the day with a 2:16.403, track conditions during the races slowed things down. Sexton set the fastest times in both motos, with his best being 2:18.656 in Moto 1.

• By taking the quickest sections from any rider, we can calculate the fastest possible lap time, which came out to be 2:16.811, still slower than Hunter's qualifying time.
• On average, Moto 1 times were about 3 seconds slower than practice times. Moto 2 times were another 3 seconds slower than Moto 1, showing the track deteriorated at a consistent and predictable rate.
• Chase Sexton was the standout, logging multiple fastest lap times in each moto. He recorded a staggering 12 out of 15 fastest laps in both motos. Lawrence and Anderson each managed one fastest lap in both motos, while Justin Cooper had one in Moto 1 and Malcolm Stewart had one in Moto 2.

450 Moto 1 Top 5 Average Lap Times 

RIDER	MOTO	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
C. Sexton	M1	2:20.735	2:18.656	2:17.15	93.8
A. Plessinger	M1	2:21.482	2:19.794	2:18.65	93.9
J. Cooper	M1	2:22.328	2:20.551	2:19.03	94.6
J. Anderson	M1	2:23.294	2:20.228	2:18.49	87.2
H. Lawrence	M1	2:23.907	2:20.018	2:19.07	88.8

450 Moto 2 Top 5 Average Lap Times 

RIDER	MOTO	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
C. Sexton	M2	2:22.315	2:19.647	2:19.50	90.5
j. Anderson	M2	2:23.378	2:20.592	2:20.54	93.7
A. Plessinger	M2	2:23.784	2:19.866	2:19.80	86.9
H. Lawrence	M2	2:24.617	2:21.004	2:20.74	84.9
D. Ferrandis	M2	2:24.768	2:22.425	2:22.82	89.5

 

Overall Performance:

• Chase Sexton continues to be in a league of his own. Battling through the pack in Moto 1, his average lap time was still 0.7 seconds per lap faster than Plessinger's. Sexton followed up with an even more dominant performance in Moto 2, being over a second per lap faster than the competition.
• Aaron Plessinger came close to his first 450 moto win, leading most of Moto 1 convincingly. While he wasn't as fast as Sexton, AP was still 0.9 seconds per lap faster than the rest of the pack.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency Scores:

• Not only has Chase Sexton been faster than everyone else, but he's also figured out consistency. While he didn't have the highest 10-Lap Consistency Score in either moto, he had the highest overall score across both motos at 92.15. 
• Marshal Weltin, who barely snuck into the top 10, had his first top 10 overall of the season and notched the second highest overall LITPro Consistency Score of 91.8.

Lap 99 Analysis:

*Lap 99 takes each riders' best segment time regardless of lap and combines them as a theoretical best lap time.

• Chase Sexton is not only leading in lap times but also dominating Lap 99 times, showing his ability to find fast lines around the track. In Moto 1, his Lap 99 time was over a second faster than the next closest rider.
• In Moto 2, many riders' Lap 99 times were very close to their fastest overall time. This shows that many riders likely had a hot lap where they set most of their fastest segment times before settling into their pace.

Lap Time Distribution for Top 10 

 

The box-and-whisker plot above clearly shows the difference between Moto 1 and Moto 2. Most riders were about 3 seconds slower in Moto 2 as the hot weather and rough conditions took their toll. The Moto 2 boxes are also much larger, highlighting a wider range of lap times. However, Justin Cooper really struggled in Moto 2. The New Yorker dropped his lap time by 6 seconds in Moto 2 and had times all over the place, struggling to stay in the top 10.

Power Rankings:

Putting everything together, rankings for each rider can be established. The table below showcases the key metrics used to determine the weekend's top riders and is crucial for shaping weekly power rankings.

  *Coloring from red-to-green only highlights disparity between top 10 and not representative of the entire field. All of these riders are near the top compared to the rest of the riders. 

As Sexton's dominance continues, his cumulative power ranking is nearing the perfect score of 100. Surprisingly, this week saw zero changes in the top 10—the first time my scores have remained unchanged since tracking started at Anaheim 1. Unsurprisingly, Sexton's flawless day led to a 97.7 score at Washougal, followed by Plessinger (94.5) and Anderson (92.9).

Cumulative Power Rankings:

Rank	Rider	Power Ranking	Change
1	Chase Sexton	97.7	NC
2	Hunter Lawrence	92.7	NC
3	Aaron Plessinger	89.6	NC
4	Justin Cooper	86.4	NC
5	Jason Anderson	85.1	NC
6	Dylan Ferrandis	79.7	NC
7	Malcom Stewart	73.9	NC
8	Christian Craig	71.4	NC
9	Harri Kullas	68.1	NC
10	Phill Nicoletti	63.9	NC

 

250 Analysis:

Battling through a small injury from Millville, Tom Vialle aimed to reset his championship hopes in Moto 1 by grabbing an early holeshot and leading every lap. Deegan hit the dirt early again while chasing Vialle. Haiden decided to settle for second place, knowing his large points lead would remain intact.

Vialle looked poised for 1-1 finishes on the day by taking the holeshot in Moto 2. However, Deegan avoided mistakes this time, smoothly passing Vialle and securing an easy 2-1 victory to claim the overall win at Washougal. Hometown hero and last week's winner, Levi Kitchen, hoped to build on his momentum, but after a disastrous Moto 1, he couldn't even break into the top 5 overall.

 

Thankfully, the transponder system worked better for both 250 motos, but there were still occasional hiccups. Although the track is broken into five different sections, that doesn't mean all five are equal. Vialle clearly dominated Moto 1, but let's take a closer look at Moto 2. Even though Deegan only had the fastest times in two out of five segments, Segments 1 and 5 are only about 8 seconds slower than Segments 2, 3, and 4. This means that Segment 1 and 5 are realistically about half of the track. In Moto 2, Deegan was clearly faster on one half of the track while Vialle excelled in the other half. Unsurprisingly, Deegan made up significant time in his faster segments, ultimately taking the lead in Segment 1.

Moto 1:

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	T. Vialle	29.371	28.848	77.5
2	H. Deegan	17.633	17.266	81.3
3	T. Vialle	32.716	31.913	89.6
4	T. Vialle	24.378	23.907	91.6
5	J. Shimoda	39.482	38.741	85.8

 Moto 2:

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	H. Deegan	29.371	28.388	70.4
2	T. Vialle	17.838	17.310	89.5
3	T. Vialle	32.676	31.746	89.6
4	T. Vialle	24.676	24.006	91.6
5	H. Deegan	39.557	38.226	80.7

Lap Time Breakdown:

The lap times for the 250 motos are unique. Remember, the 250 motos were second, so Moto 2 should have been the roughest the track got all day. Yet, the top three riders—Deegan, Vialle, and Shimoda—not only found their groove in these conditions, but they thrived. Each set their fastest lap time of the day (outside of qualifying) in Moto 2, while the rest of the class slowed down similarly to the 450s.

250 Moto 1 Top 5 Average Lap Times 

RIDER	MOTO	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
T. Vialle	M1	2:23.931	2:21.850	2:21.06	93.9
H. Deegan	M1	2:24.702	2:21.925	2:19.68	92.3
J. Shimoda	M1	2:25.162	2:23.570	2:21.84	95.3
M. Anstie	M1	2:25.652	2:24.561	2:23.30	95.4
R. DiFancesco	M1	2:26.048	2:22.992	2:21.06	83.6

250 Moto 2 Top 5 Average Lap Times 

RIDER	MOTO	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
H. Deegan	M2	2:24.356	2:20.221	2:19.09	79.3
J. Shimoda	M2	2:25.300	2:22.659	2:21.73	87.3
T. Vialle	M2	2:25.418	2:20.843	2:20.50	84.1
L. Kitchen	M2	2:27.549	2:24.804	2:23.72	85.6
P. Brown	M2	2:27.724	2:25.833	2:24.61	94.3

Overall Performance:

• Tom Vialle found his groove in Moto 1, not only setting the fastest lap time of the Moto but also averaging 0.8 seconds per lap faster than Deegan and the rest of the class.
• However, it was all Haiden Deegan in Moto 2. The current points leader demonstrated why he has the red plate by riding a full second per lap faster and setting the quickest lap time by over half a second.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency Scores:

• Despite dominating times in Moto 2, Haiden Deegan struggled with consistency. Our LITPro 10-Lap consistency scores had him at a shockingly low 79.3. However, with the rest of the pack not putting up much of a fight, he didn't necessarily have to risk it.
• Quietly having a great day, Pierce Brown cracked the top 5 fastest average times in Moto 2, cruised to the highest consistency score in the moto at 94.3, and led the class with an overall score of 94.05.

Lap 99 Analysis:

*Lap 99 takes each riders' best segment time regardless of lap and combines them as a theoretical best lap time.

• Haiden Deegan clearly isn't afraid to ride his bike to its limits. Pushing his Yamaha, Deegan was the only rider to crack 2:19 Lap 99 times in either Moto.
• In both Motos, Tom Vialle's Lap 99 time was shockingly close to his fastest lap time, indicating his fastest lap was also the fastest for most of his segments.

Lap Time Distribution for Top 10

The box-and-whisker plot above clearly shows not only the unusually faster lap times of the top 3 riders in Moto 2 but also how the rest of the pack largely slowed down. In fact, the average lap time for Moto 2 was 3.5 seconds slower than Moto 1. The wide boxes for the top 3 indicate that they were able to run some hot laps before settling into a generally slower pace than Moto 1 for the remainder of the race.

Power Rankings:

*Coloring from red-to-green only highlights disparity between top 10 and not representative of the entire field. All of these riders are near the top compared to the rest of the riders. 

Although cumulative power rankings are not tracked for the 250s, Tom Vialle actually managed to take the top points this weekend with 98.4. He was closely followed by Deegan (97.3) then Shimoda (91.4).