Moto Metrics: '25 Anaheim 1

January 13, 2025 Arich Knaub

Key Highlights:

Nine Too Many: While riders and fans alike complain about the 9 whoop rule, the sector still proved to be the most difficult by a wide margin. On average, the 450s managed only a 64 on LITPro's consistency scoring in the sector, and the 250s a scary 44.
Feeling Dangerous: While battling through the pack, Haiden Deegan averaged 1.06 seconds per lap faster than race leader Jo Shimoda through the first 9 laps of the race.
Back to Form: Chase sexton had the top 3 overall fastest lap times and 60% of the top 10 fastest times. He was also the only rider to crack 1:04s in the main event, which he did twice.
Beast Mode: Eli Tomac set the second fastest average lap time of any 450 rider, while coming back from last place! Not only that, he did it with a consistency score of 95.
Late Season Form: Jo Shimoda looked incredibly comfortable in the lead. He was the only rider to have a lap time in the 1:05s, and he was also on average 0.3 seconds per lap quicker than 2nd place.

Nothing gets the adrenaline pumping quite like the first Supercross race of the year, and as always, Anaheim 1 never disappoints. If one thing is for certain, there is nothing guaranteed. This year's opener was full of surprises and chaos for the mainstream media to mull over. However, the data always tells a story. A story different from the broadcast. A story that shows that some riders were dialed in, even if they weren't the ones winning the races. Let's dive into all things analytics for Anaheim 1.

450 Analysis:

Briefly recapping Saturday's action in the main event, championship favorite Jett Lawrence found himself tangled with a tuff block on the starting corner, and later down in the sand a few laps later. He'll have some work to do on his championship efforts which we will detail later. Fans were in for a treat as it looked like we would get a classic Tomac and Sexton battle. But Tomac also found himself washing the front end in the third corner, clearing the way for Sexton to take home his first A1 victory. While we will cover all of his stats too, Tomac unlocked Beast Mode early this year, delivering an impressive comeback with some of the most incredible consistency and lap times of any race ever.

Track Breakdown:

In our track map above, we highlight which rider was on average fastest in each sector of the track throughout the entire main event. One face which pops up a lot is Cooper Webb's. Webb had a quiet night, but he's already looking to be in his late-season championship form. Not only did he tie race winner Chase Sexton in two fastest sector times, but he was also incredibly consistent in his lap times.

Even though Jett was clearly off after crashing in the sand, he still managed to be quickest in the rhythm section, but that is about where the positives end. On average he was nearly 0.2s slower per sector per lap than Sexton. Check out all the sector times below. We also highlight sector consistency scores using LITPro's consistency formula. A common theme throughout the night was just how brutal the whoops and sand section were, which was Sector 2. The data backs this up. Sector 2 had the lowest average consistency of both classes by over 10 full points.

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	C. Webb	4.669	4.517	81.4
2	C. Sexton	7.786	7.218	54.8
3	C. Webb	5.901	5.761	90.8
4	K. Roczen	12.737	12.462	87.0
5	J. Barcia	8.848	8.592	84.2
6	J. Lawrence	8.452	8.151	85.2
7	E. Tomac	8.847	8.571	91.4
8	C. Sexton	7.935	7.767	91.6

Lap Time Breakdown:

In the chart above, we breakdown the lap time distributions. One theme this year in the 450s is just how 'stacked' the class is. In fact, the class has so much depth that two former 250 Supercross Champions failed to qualify through the LCQ (Dylan Ferrandis and Colt Nichols). The lap time distributions support this claim. Notice nearly all lap times are clustered within a 4-second window between 66 and 70 seconds; in fact, 75% of all lap times were under 69 seconds. That's for an entire class!

If we took the fastest sector times recorded throughout the night, the ultimate Lap 99 (or fastest possible lap) would be a 1:02.852. The fastest time in qualifying was 1:03.120. So definitely possible.

This 450 class is also incredibly consistent. The average consistency score for the class was 88.2. However, only four riders managed to claim the fastest lap in the 19-lap main event: Sexton, Tomac, Webb, and Roczen. But, it was Sexton who was truly dominant, claiming 11 fastest laps.

450 Main Event: Top Average Lap Times

RIDER	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
C. Sexton	1:06.088	1:04.583	1:03.64	90.3
E. Tomac	1:06.230	1:05.219	1:03.54	94.9
K. Roczen	1:06.286	1:05.148	1:04.24	88.5
C. Webb	1:06.335	1:05.751	1:03.97	95.4
J. Anderson	1:06.474	1:05.670	1:04.31	95.1
J. Lawrence	1:07.936	1:06.246	1:04.72	92.9
H. Lawrence	1:08.139	1:05.738	1:05.07	88.0
J. Prado	1:09.066	1:06.322	1:05.17	84.0

Top Performances:

Chase Sexton said he was feeling great, and his times back this statement up. Chase Sexton had the top 3 overall fastest lap times and 60% of the top 10 fastest times. He was also the only rider to crack 1:04s in the main event, which he did twice.

Let's throw some love to privateer efforts by Justin Hill. Hill not only looked confident, but he set the 7th fastest average lap time, ahead of those from factory guys like Plessinger, both Lawrence brothers, and Justin Cooper.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency Scores:

Eli Tomac wishes he had this race back. Not only did he manage the second-fastest average lap time coming from last place, but he also had a 94.9 consistency score and crushed Lap 99 times. Cooper Webb was incredibly solid and already looking sneaky. He knocked out solid laps at good pace, setting the highest consistency score of the class at a 95.1.

Lap 99 Analysis:

*Lap 99 takes each riders' best segment time regardless of lap and combines them as a theoretical best lap time.

What may be even more impressive by Eli's comeback ride is his theoretical best lap time. While Sexton had a clear track, Tomac's hypothetical best time was a full tenth faster than Chase's. Once again, Cooper Webb is clearly showing he's a championship contender with the speed to back it up. He is one of only three riders to have a Lap 99 time in the 1:03s.

What If?

While everyone was surely disappointed in seeing Tomac go down, we can still hypothetical 'bench race' our race winner and Tomac's comeback ride. In the graph below, I took Chase's lap times and compared them to Tomac's. It's clear that Sexton had the advantage early in the race when Tomac was passing through traffic, but Beast Mode arrived around the halfway point of the race, and from there Eli was putting in some serious laps.

Finally, is all lost for Jett Lawrence already? That may not be the case. Three times in recent Supercross history has the series champion finished worse than Jett in the opener yet still won the championship. They were Ryan Villopoto ('13), James Stewart ('09), and Ricky Carmichael ('02). However, none of them had to do it against 4 former 450 Supercross champions. While not impossible, Jett must find comfort on the bike and quickly if he hopes to regain the lost points.

250 Analysis:

Once Levi Kitchen switched to the East Coast due to a last-minute illness, everyone (myself included), thought that this race and championship would be Deegan's to lose. And well, he nearly lost it on opening night. Tonight was not a night for championship favorites, and Deegan found himself down on the first straight after the start, but all those months training with Tomac have paid dividends. He mounted an impressive comeback to 5th place. However, all may not be as hopeful as the Deegan camp thought. Jo Shimoda looks to be in late-season form already, leading wire-to-wire in the main event. Julien Beaumer seemingly can outpace Deegan in qualifying and rode to an impressive second place. But most surprising of all may be Jordan Smith's efforts on his Triumph debut.

Jordan Smith may have had a tip-over, but that didn't stop him from lighting up the track map. He's the only rider of either class to claim three fastest sector times. But that's not all. Rookie Cole Davies looked impressive in his debut, claiming a fastest sector time and proving he has both the speed and stamina to run with the big dogs. Perhaps most surprising from the sector map is Shimoda only claiming one fastest sector. Shimoda has proved time and time again that raw speed doesn't win races, but consistency does. He may not have had the most fastest segments, but he was on average at least the third fastest in every other sector.

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	J. Smith	4.767	4.657	87.8
2	C. Davies	7.723	7.162	52.5
3	R. DiFrancesco	6.231	6.231	88.0
4	J. Shimoda	13.081	12.575	69.7
5	H. Deegan	8.951	8.692	80.6
6	J. Smith	8.611	8.423	85.3
7	H. Deegan	9.044	8.668	64.3
8	J. Smith	8.020	7.850	88.7

Lap Time Breakdown:

The 250 class has quite a bit of a skill gap compared to the depth of the 450s. Notice the huge gap in times right before 68 seconds. That's the difference between the top guys (Deegan, Shimoda, Beaumer, and Smith) versus the rest of the pack. The lack of experience also shows up in consistency scores. The class averaged 3 points lower in consistency than the 450s and 2 seconds slower per lap. Yes, they may have smaller engines, which means they should be slower, but we have seen several cases last year where the fastest times in Pro Motocross were set by a 250 rider. With a clear track, could Deegan or Beaumer do it?