Key Highlights:
- Red Plate Roczen: Roczen could have stolen the win with a late-race surge, cutting 2.6 seconds off Jett’s lead in 4 laps. Despite falling short by just 2.5 seconds, Roczen showed he’s a threat in the final laps, flipping the script on his usual early-race dominance.
- Looking Unstoppable: There wasn’t much anyone could do to stop Deegan in this race. Deegan cleared Beaumer by about 0.2 seconds per lap, and he set the fastest lap of either class in the Main Events.
- Cost the Race: Justin Cooper led a good portion of this race, but the whoops severely impacted his performance. Cooper ranked 12th and 13th in whoops speed. Between both sets of whoops, he was losing over a second per lap in that section to the leaders.
- El' Hombre is Back: Jason Anderson appears to be back in form after a challenging 2024 season. Anderson posted the top consistency score of the evening at 96.8. He was the only rider whose average lap time was within one second of his best lap time.
- Back of the Pack (again): Despite starting in 21st place again, Eli Tomac demonstrated he had the speed to win the race. His Lap 99 time was 0.3 seconds faster than the rest of the pack.
450 Analysis:
After raining for a good portion of the latter half of the 250 main event, the 450 riders lined up for a showdown on a slippery, hard-packed Anaheim 2 track. Justin Cooper grabbed the holeshot and led several laps. However, his lack of speed through the back-to-back whoops hurt his times, allowing several riders to pass him. Jett Lawrence worked his way through the top five and eventually took the lead. The defending Supercross champion finally secured his first win of the season. However, it was the second-place finisher, Ken Roczen, who walked away with the points lead—despite not having won a race yet this season. This reinforces our claim that podiums win championships.
Track Breakdown:
In the maps above, we provide two views of the track. First, we showcase which riders had the best average sector times throughout the entire main event. Despite winning the race, Jett Lawrence only recorded the fastest time in one sector. However, he won the race because, on average, he ranked 3rd or better in sector times around the track. Recall that Justin Cooper led a good portion of this race, but the whoops severely impacted his performance. Cooper ranked 12th and 13th in whoops speed. Between both sets of whoops, he was losing over a second per lap in that section to the leaders.
In the second map, we highlight where all 154 overtakes in the main event took place. We noticed that the long rhythm lanes offered the most passing opportunities, but the second whoop section was also a key spot despite having fewer pass counts. Here’s why: nearly every sector of the track has at least one corner, but S3 had none. Yet, there were more passes through those whoops than in the first whoop section, which included a bowl corner. Despite this disparity, we consider the sand section to be the most challenging. The average LITPro consistency score in the sand was only 50.
| SEG | Rider | Average Time |
Fastest Time |
Consistency Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | J. Cooper | 10.701 | 10.513 | 91.4 |
| 2 | J. Anderson | 7.038 | 6.744 | 73.9 |
| 3 | K. Roczen | 2.763 | 2.498 | 88.9 |
| 4 | J. Anderson | 3.734 | 3.499 | 74.4 |
| 5 | J. Cooper | 6.455 | 6.268 | 93.5 |
| 6 | J. Lawrence | 7.203 | 6.970 | 89.3 |
| 7 | M. Stewart | 2.066 | 1.989 | 80.2 |
| 8 | K. Roczen | 10.617 | 10.452 | 94.8 |
| 9 | E. Tomac | 9.848 | 9.200 | 81.0 |
Lap Time Breakdown:
In the histogram above, we show lap time distributions throughout the entire race. There were three distinct groups of riders in this race. The first cluster, around 61 seconds, consisted of the elite riders. In fact, the top six average lap times were separated by just 0.5 seconds. Following this elite group, there were two other clusters of riders, one around 63 seconds and another around 66 seconds. Anaheim 2 proved to be a challenging track that clearly separated riders based on bike skills.
Despite this, the 450 class remains incredibly consistent. Over half the pack achieved a consistency score of 90 or better. If we combine the best sector times recorded, the theoretical top Lap 99 time would be 57.736 seconds—2.3 seconds faster than the fastest lap of the night.
Check out this comparison of Anderson and Roczen from qualifying practice using LITPro vision to see just how the pros attack the track.
Throughout the 21-lap main event, Jett Lawrence prevailed, setting the fastest lap on seven occasions. However, Eli Tomac also impressed by setting the fastest lap on four occasions, despite starting in 21st place once again. That said, Tomac wasn’t able to unleash "Beast Mode" this weekend and only managed to climb back up to 7th place.
450 Main Event: Top Average Lap Times
| RIDER | Average Time |
Fastest Time |
LAP 99 |
Consistency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Lawrence | 1:01.199 | 1:00.053 | 59.033 | 93.9 |
| K. Roczen | 1:01.252 | 1:00.075 | 58.843 | 93.4 |
| J. Anderson | 1:01.348 | 1:00.545 | 59.314 | 96.8 |
| C. Sexton | 1:01.365 | 1:00.157 | 59.196 | 89.4 |
| H. Lawrence | 1:01.701 | 1:00.292 | 59.147 | 91.0 |
| E. Tomac | 1:01.717 | 1:00.303 | 58.500 | 93.7 |
Top Performances:
Jett Lawrence and Ken Roczen were incredibly close throughout this race. Their average lap times were separated by only 0.05 seconds per lap, but it was Jett who managed to set the fastest lap of the race. We believe this race came down to which rider could pass Jason Anderson quickly.
LITPro 10-Lap Consistency Scores:
Jason Anderson appears to be back in form after a challenging 2024 season. Anderson posted the top consistency score of the evening at 96.8. He was the only rider whose average lap time was within one second of his best lap time.
Once again, Jett Lawrence and Ken Roczen had nearly identical performances. Even their consistency scores were separated by just 0.5 points.
Lap 99 Analysis:
*Lap 99 takes each riders' best segment time regardless of lap and combines them as a theoretical best lap time.
Despite starting in 21st place again, Eli Tomac demonstrated he had the speed to win the race. His Lap 99 time was 0.3 seconds faster than the rest of the pack and one of only two Lap 99 times in the 58-second range—the other belonging to Roczen.
A Closer Look:
Given how closely Roczen and Jett's posted times were, we argue that if Roczen had gotten around Anderson sooner, he could have taken the race win. His Lap 99 time was faster than Jett's, but more notable was how strongly Roczen performed late in the race. He shaved 2.6 seconds off Jett's lead in the final four laps and ultimately lost by just 2.5 seconds. Previously known for his incredible speed early in races, Roczen appears to have flipped the script, showing impressive strength in the later stages.
250 Analysis:
Well, it finally happened. Haiden Deegan got a great start, and there wasn’t much anyone could do about it. While Julien Beaumer had the opportunity to retaliate in the first corner (payback for Deegan taking him out in the heat race), Beaumer chose to take the high road. The top three—Deegan, Beaumer, and Smith—essentially held their positions for most of the race. However, a last-lap crash in the whoops by Jordan Smith allowed Davies to slip through and claim his first-ever podium finish.
Deegan, Beaumer, and Smith continued to dominate sector times this week. Given the lack of depth in the West Coast region, it’s no surprise that these three are setting the top times and dominating the track map. Despite this, Cole Davies continues to impress. He was ready to capitalize on Smith's mistake and even posted the best average sector time in the very same whoops where Smith crashed.
In the passing map, we see very few similarities between classes. In fact, the track raced quite differently, partially due to the rain that fell during the second half of the race. While the top passing lane remained the same in both classes, the first set of whoops proved critical in the 250s. This is to be expected given the relative lack of experience in the 250 class which makes whoops a clear skill separator.
| SEG | Rider | Average Time |
Fastest Time |
Consistency Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | J. Smith | 10.799 | 10.470 | 91.7 |
| 2 | J. Smith | 7.041 | 6.823 | 86.4 |
| 3 | C. Davies | 2.705 | 2.511 | 61.7 |
| 4 | H. Deegan | 3.664 | 3.333 | 46.8 |
| 5 | H. Deegan | 6.412 | 6.247 | 82.4 |
| 6 | J. Beaumer | 7.140 | 6.875 | 81.9 |
| 7 | H. Deegan | 2.075 | 1.983 | 65.2 |
| 8 | J. Beaumer | 10.698 | 10.336 | 86.3 |
| 9 | H. Deegan | 10.132 | 9.558 | 74.9 |
Lap Time Breakdown:
There wasn’t much anyone could do to stop Deegan in this race. Not only did he set the fastest lap of the night, but he also posted the fastest lap on 8 of the 16 timed laps. Looking at overall times, Deegan recorded the four fastest laps of the race and the fastest lap of either class.
In the lap histogram above, we see much less separation between the riders, with two main groups standing out. The first cluster, around 61 seconds, consists mostly of Deegan and Beaumer. The second cluster includes Davies and Smith. Then there’s everyone else. And oh boy, did everyone else struggle once the rain started. Only half of the riders managed to score a consistency score above 80, and only one rider scored a consistency score in the 90s—Jordan Smith, despite his last-lap crash.
250 Main Event: Top Average Lap Times
| RIDER | Average Time |
Fastest Time |
LAP 99 |
Consistency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Deegan | 1:01.301 | 59.384 | 58.466 | 89.6 |
| J. Beaumer | 1:01.512 | 59.759 | 59.041 | 87.4 |
| C. Davies | 1:02.278 | 60.088 | 59.617 | 88.6 |
| J. Smith | 1:03.185 | 60.212 | 59.144 | 95.2 |
| C. Schock | 1:03.359 | 60.970 | 59.932 | 85.1 |
Top Performances:
The 250 race was much more of a 'blowout' compared to the 450s. Deegan cleared Beaumer by about 0.2 seconds per lap, and both Deegan and Beaumer were the only riders in the 1:01s. Not only that, but Deegan also beat Beaumer's fastest lap time by nearly half a second.
Coty Schock continues to impress with Club MX. After winning his heat race, he’s starting to become a consistent top 5 threat. However, he still has work to do, as his fastest lap time was well off the pace. Cole Davies and Coty Schock battled all night long. Schock may have won the heat race, but Davies took the podium in the main event. Here is how they both compared during qualifying using Vision.
LITPro 10-Lap Consistency Scores:
Since riders are allowed to drop their worst lap time when calculating consistency scores, it was Jordan Smith who walked away with the best score in the 250 class tonight. The veteran continues to look strong on his Triumph, but after crashing in two-thirds of the main events this season, he remains his own worst enemy.
Lap 99 Analysis:
*Lap 99 takes each riders' best segment time regardless of lap and combines them as a theoretical best lap time.
Deegan was the only rider to set a Lap 99 time in the 58-second range, beating the rest by nearly 0.6 seconds. Jordan Smith looked like he had the speed to contest Beaumer, but he just couldn’t manage to reach the young KTM rider. Smith and Beaumer’s Lap 99 times were separated by just a tenth of a second.
A Closer Look:
Most who watched the race would argue that Beaumer didn’t really have much of a chance against Deegan tonight. Beaumer even admitted as much in his post-race interview. However, looking at lap times, Beaumer continued to ride strong late into the race. Perhaps Deegan had let up, but I think Beaumer didn’t want to risk throwing away the red plate with a bad race, settling for second, and living to fight next weekend.
