Key Highlights
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Hunter's Hidden Ride: After an unusually bad start in Moto 1, Hunter Lawrence turned in one of his best rides of the year. His Lap 99 was 0.8 seconds faster than Jett’s while slicing through the pack, and he matched Jett on both fastest and median lap times.
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Deegan's Mic Drop: While the rest of the field slowed down nearly five seconds per lap between motos, Haiden Deegan actually went faster in Moto 2, the only 250 rider to do so. Even more, he gained nearly a second per lap on Shimoda and the rest of the class.
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Guillod's Playoff Push: Valentin Guillod may not be a household name in the U.S., but the MXGP vet keeps showing up. He consistently ranks near the top in LITPro consistency, and this weekend was no different. With a 93.3 combined score across both motos, Guillod officially locked his SMX Playoff spot.
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Davie's Wild Weekend: Cole Davies grabbed his first career moto win and now owns one of the weirdest rookie scorecards ever: 23, 23, 1, 17. James Stewart nailed it on the call: Budds Creek has the most important start in motocross. Davies nailed it, put himself on the podium, and eventually on the top of the box (with penalty help). Still, he was only the 5th-fastest rider in the moto, proving once again just how crucial the start really is.
450 Analysis
That’s a wrap on the Pro Motocross season! But we still have one last set of motos to break down. And while plenty of storylines dominate the mainstream outlets, Jorge Prado’s disastrous season, Eli Tomac not grabbing an overall, or the speculation around Haiden Deegan jumping to the 450s next year, there’s a lot more we can take away heading into the SMX Playoffs.
Jett and Hunter Lawrence look untouchable. The HRC duo not only went 1-2 in points, but they also have very few riders even close to their speed right now. Justin Cooper and RJ Hampshire each put in solid rides, but over the course of a 30-minute moto the Lawrences’ speed, consistency, and fitness are unmatched. Those are the exact keys to winning the playoffs.
Track Breakdown:
The track map above shows who clocked the fastest average sector times in each motos.
In 450 Moto 1, Jett gave us one more reminder of why he’s the 450 champion, and why he’s probably the best motocross racer on the planet right now. Oddly enough, he only had three of the seven fastest sectors and kept Cooper back by about three seconds. But it was a textbook Jett ride: smooth, in control, and with the competition exactly where he wanted it.
Quick side note on live timing before we go further. With Prado failing to qualify but still making the motos under seeding rules, 41 riders lined up. Live timing couldn’t handle it. Riders had missing sectors, four-minute lap times, and the running order was all over the place. We cleaned the data up as best we could and are confident in the numbers here.
In 450 Moto 2, there’s already speculation about how hard Jett actually rode. He straight-up goon rode the last half lap, having fun with the overall already locked, while Hunter took the moto win. That still tells us plenty, though, Hunter is no slouch. Without Jett, Hunter is the guy in the premier class. He rode great, claiming five of seven sectors and topping multiple key metrics that suggest he was actually the best rider in that moto and on the weekend. If Hunter had snagged 2nd in Moto 1, we’d have seen a completely different race, one where the brothers throw down and put 40+ seconds on third place.
450 Moto 1:
| SEG | Rider | Avg. Time |
Fastest Time (All) |
Sector Consistency (All) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | J. Lawrence | 17.05 | 16.58 | 81.9 |
| 2 |
J. Cooper |
15.95 | 15.18 | 79.2 |
| 3 | H. Lawrence | 25.25 | 24.35 | 82.4 |
| 4 | J. Lawrence | 19.19 | 18.57 | 78.9 |
| 5 | J. Lawrence | 14.27 | 13.84 | 80.6 |
| 6 | H. Lawrence | 13.10 | 12.68 | 77.5 |
| 7 | J. Cooper | 11.98 | 11.30 | 76.9 |
450 Moto 2:
| SEG | Rider | Avg. Time |
Fastest Time (All) |
Sector Consistency (All) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | H. Lawrence | 16.97 | 16.49 | 78.9 |
| 2 | H. Lawrence | 16.73 | 16.16 | 81.8 |
| 3 | H. Lawrence | 25.52 | 24.57 | 82.7 |
| 4 | R. Hampshire | 19.72 | 18.98 | 81.2 |
| 5 | J. Lawrence | 14.79 | 14.36 | 81.3 |
| 6 | H. Lawrence | 13.31 | 12.64 | 72.8 |
| 7 | H. Lawrence | 11.81 | 11.29 | 76.4 |
Lap Time Breakdown:
Budds Creek was rough this year, especially for the 250s (we’ll get there). But with the 450s hitting the track first, Moto 1 gave us some blazing laps on a clean track, followed by some brutal times in Moto 2. Across the field, average lap times dropped by more than two seconds between motos, and the fastest lap fell off by nearly three. Consistency also tanked in MOto 2 where most riders lost over three points.
Moto 1 Fast Laps (18 Timed Laps)
- J. Lawrence, H. Lawrence: 7
- Cooper: 4
Class Average Consistency: 86.0
Class Median Consistency: 90.2
Moto 2 Fast Laps (17 Timed Laps)
- H. Lawrence: 11
- Hampshire: 3
- J. Lawrence: 2
- Cooper: 1
Class Average Consistency: 78.4
Class Median Consistency: 87.1
450 Moto 1 Analysis
| RIDER | Average Time |
Median Time |
Fastest Time |
Lap 99 | Consistency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Lawrence | 1:57.28 | 1:57.02 | 1:54.78 | 1:53.55 | 87.3 |
| J. Cooper | 1:57.44 | 1:57.15 | 1:55.94 | 1:53.60 | 93.7 |
| H. Lawrence | 1:57.27 | 1:57.24 | 1:54.92 | 1:52.83 | 90.8 |
| R. Hampshire | 1:57.93 | 1:57.77 | 1:56.11 | 1:54.62 | 91.6 |
| D. Ferrandis | 2:00.23 | 1:59.96 | 1:57.72 | 1:56.73 | 88.9 |
Rider's sorted by median lap time.
Top Performances:
Moto 1 was tight. Check those median lap times. This is one of the closest spreads we’ve seen all year among the top four. Big shoutout to Cooper and Hampshire. Cooper finally looked like his old self after a string of rough races, and Hampshire capped off a ridiculously strong rookie season.
Still, both Lawrences looked sharp. They were the only riders to dip into the 1:54s. Hunter might’ve had one of his best rides of the season despite finishing third. After a brutal start, 31st on lap one, he charged through the pack. That was the first sign Hunter might have actually been the better Lawrence brother this weekend.
LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:
Cooper deserves another nod here. He dominated consistency, nearly hitting 94. When you’re three seconds off the win but seven points more consistent than Jett, that’s huge.
Lap 99 Analysis:
Another hint Hunter was dialed: his Lap 99 time. Almost a full second faster than both Jett and Cooper, and clear of everyone else, he charged through the field at an unmatched pace.
450 Moto 2 Analysis
| RIDER | Average Time |
Median Time |
Fastest Time |
Lap 99 | Consistency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Lawrence | 1:59.26 | 1:58.74 | 1:57.42 | 1:55.62 | 93.1 |
| J. Lawrence | 2:00.05 | 1:58.95 | 1:57.64 | 1:56.34 | 93.7 |
| J. Cooper | 2:00.96 | 1:59.23 | 1:57.86 | 1:15.94 | 91.5 |
| R. Hampshire | 2:00.36 | 1:59.79 | 1:57.37 | 1:55.62 | 88.3 |
| J. Barcia | 2:01.97 | 2:01.80 | 1:58.56 | 1:56.35 | 85.3 |
Rider's sorted by median lap time.
Top Performances:
Sure, Jett only set two fast laps and looked like he was messing around behind Hunter, but our Moto 1 analysis backs up the idea that Hunter was just flat-out better this weekend. Only 0.2 separated the brothers on median lap time, and about the same on fastest lap. Give Hunter one or two more laps in Moto 1 and 2nd place is his which could’ve meant another overall. He’s now finished every 450 race of his career inside the top five and kept building on his ridiculous podium streak.
LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:
Moto 2 really showed the Lawrences’ strength. While most of the field struggled with consistency, both brothers stayed in the 93+ range and put 20 seconds on third place. Long story short, they get better as the track goes away. Shoutout to Valentin Guillod too. His combined consistency of 93.3 across both motos was huge. Chasing SMX playoff seeding through Outdoors alone, he did exactly what he needed.
Lap 99 Analysis:
Usually when Jett plays it safe, his Lap 99 still leads the field. Not this time. Hunter beat him by 0.7 seconds again adding more proof he was the faster brother this weekend. Meanwhile, Jett walked away with the championship. A perfect weekend for the HRC camp.
250 Analysis
A lot of guys in the 250s had a rough one. Going second meant they had to deal with a rougher track, and then both motos had red flags. Moto 1 was a standard restart, while Moto 2 saw a staggered restart. First off, here’s hoping the injured riders are okay. The Moto 1 red flag also brought penalties for Haiden Deegan and Jo Shimoda, which handed Cole Davies his first-ever moto win. Davies has maybe the weirdest rookie results of anyone this season: 23, 23, 1, and 17.
Still, at the end of the day, Deegan is now a two-time 250 Pro Motocross champ, and he made sure everyone knew why in Moto 2. What stood out was how hard he rode after the staggered restart. He didn’t need to, but he did. And it was fun.
Track Breakdown:
The track map above shows who clocked the fastest average sector times in each motos.
Here’s the wild part: our Moto 1 winner never set a single fastest sector. He barely cracked the top five in median lap times. We all know Deegan and Shimoda had Davies covered, but the penalties gave him the win. That said, some unexpected names popped up in Moto 1’s data. Let’s call out Drew Adams. In the closing stretch of his rookie season, Adams has really stepped it up. After a couple of rocky years, Pro Circuit Kawasaki might finally be back on track with Adams, Hammaker, and Marchbanks.
Levi Kitchen also looked more like his old self. Sure, he only bagged one sector in Moto 2, but he was ripping in both motos. The problem? Shimoda and Deegan are basically in their own zip code right now. Speaking of, Deegan owned the stats in Moto 2. We’ll get into that in a second.
250 Moto 1:
| SEG | Rider | Avg. Time |
Fastest Time (All) |
Sector Consistency (All) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | J. Shimoda | 17.24 | 16.86 | 84.4 |
| 2 | H. Deegan | 16.35 | 15.70 | 78.3 |
| 3 | J. Shimoda | 25.27 | 24.40 | 82.1 |
| 4 | T. Masterpool | 20.08 | 19.44 | 82.7 |
| 5 | S. Hammaker | 14.80 | 14.34 | 83.6 |
| 6 | H. Deegan | 13.34 | 12.88 | 79.3 |
| 7 | D. Adams | 11.78 | 11.37 | 80.6 |
250 Moto 2:
| SEG | Rider | Avg. Time |
Fastest Time (All) |
Sector Consistency (All) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L. Kitchen | 17.82 | 17.13 | 77.3 |
| 2 | H. Deegan | 16.47 | 16.02 | 79.5 |
| 3 | H. Deegan | 25.57 | 23.92 | 70.3 |
| 4 | J. Shimoda | 20.31 | 19.49 | 79.1 |
| 5 | G. Marchbanks | 15.22 | 14.53 | 83.8 |
| 6 | H. Deegan | 13.43 | 12.66 | 78.0 |
| 7 | H. Deegan | 12.14 | 11.72 | 79.8 |
Lap Time Breakdown:
Even though the 250s went second, which usually levels out the difference between motos, Moto 2 was absolutely brutal. Average lap times across the field dropped by nearly five seconds compared to Moto 1. Consistency numbers fell off just like they did in the 450s.
And then there’s Haiden Deegan. He actually went faster in Moto 2 than he did in Moto 1. Budds Creek has always been a strong track for him, and he showed it again.
Moto 1 Fast Laps (17 Timed Laps)
- Deegan: 7
- Shimoda: 5
- Davies: 3
- Kitchen, Vialle: 1
Class Average Consistency: 83.0
Class Median Consistency: 90.5
Moto 2 Fast Laps (16 Timed Laps)
- Deegan: 10
- Masterpool: 2
- Shimoda, Kitchen, Marchbanks, Thrasher: 1
Class Average Consistency: 76.7
Class Median Consistency: 87.7
250 Moto 1 Analysis
| RIDER | Average Time |
Median Time |
Fastest Time |
Lap 99 | Consistency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Deegan | 1:59.32 | 1:59.05 | 1:57.69 | 1:56.16 | 91.9 |
| J. Shimoda | 1:59.82 | 1:59.21 | 1:57.92 | 1:55.96 | 94.4 |
| S. Hammaker | 2:00.76 | 2:00.28 | 1:59.75 | 1:57.93 | 96.7 |
| L. Kitchen | 2:00.79 | 2:00.44 | 1:59.41 | 1:57.14 | 94.5 |
| C. Davies | 2:00.72 | 2:00.95 | 1:57.76 | 1:56.95 | 84.7 |
Rider's sorted by median lap time.
Top Performances:
Cole Davies took the moto win while being the fifth-fastest rider on track. Stewart nailed it on the broadcast: the Budds Creek start is maybe the most important of the year. You can lose 30 seconds to the leaders in the opening lap if you don’t nail it. Davies had the start in Moto 1, and it showed.
Meanwhile, Deegan cruised at nearly half a second quicker per lap than Shimoda, and more than 1.5 seconds faster than anyone else. He only needed 13th to wrap up the championship, but he wanted the win.
LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:
Plenty of 250 riders put up great consistency scores, but Levi Kitchen gets the nod in Moto 1. Nearly hitting 95, he cut through the pack the same way Hunter did in the 450s.
Lap 99 Analysis:
Shimoda may not have had the weekend he wanted, especially after dominating Unadilla, but his Lap 99 was the only one in the 1:55s.
250 Moto 2 Analysis
| RIDER | Average Time |
Median Time |
Fastest Time |
Lap 99 | Consistency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Deegan | 2:01.70 | 2:01.83 | 1:57.55 | 1:56.29 | 80.0 |
| J. Shimoda | 2:02.61 | 2:02.23 | 1:59.00 | 1:57.39 | 81.6 |
| L. Kitchen | 2:03.13 | 2:02.94 | 2:00.53 | 1:58.72 | 87.0 |
| G. Marchbanks | 2:03.79 | 2:03.22 | 2:01.62 | 1:58.72 | 92.5 |
| N. Thrasher | 2:03.91 | 2:03.31 | 2:00.79 | 1:59.08 | 87.7 |
Rider's sorted by median lap time.
Top Performances:
Haiden Deegan closed out his 250 Pro Motocross career with a statement ride. Nearly a second per lap faster than Shimoda, he kept pushing until the checkers. He found new lines late, stayed sharp, and dropped a fastest lap that was 2.5 seconds quicker than Shimoda’s, and Shimoda himself was 1.5 faster than Kitchen.
LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:
Garrett Marchbanks continues to be the unsung hero of the class. He gained more positions on the season than Deegan, Shimoda, and Kitchen combined. And here, he was the only rider in the top five to score above 90 on consistency.
Lap 99 Analysis:
Deegan wasn’t backing off. His Lap 99 was more than a second quicker than Shimoda’s, and his outright fastest lap nearly topped Shimoda’s Lap 99. That’s how you cap a title run.