Moto Metrics: '25 Daytona

March 3, 2025 Arich Knaub

Key Highlights:

Zook Dog: Ken Roczen was untouchable, setting the pace from start to finish. His average lap time was nearly four-tenths faster than Webb’s, and he was the only rider to break into the 1:18s with a blazing 1:18.96, almost a quarter-second faster than anyone else.
A Must Win Situation: RJ Hampshire was on fire, clocking an average lap time over half a second faster than Vialle, who was half a second faster than Hammaker. His pace was so strong, it could’ve matched Cooper Webb’s in the 450 class.
Solid Sophomore: Justin Cooper is proving he belongs in the 450 class, consistently running with the front of the pack. He was one of only three riders to average under 1:21 lap times as he carved through the pack from ninth to fourth.
Back on the Saddle: Chance Hymas is proving he’s got the speed, setting the fastest Lap 99 time in the 250s at 1:18.26, over half a second quicker than anyone else. Despite limited seat time, he’s showing major promise.
A Quiet Night: Malcolm Stewart may not have made headlines in the main event, but his riding was rock-solid. After winning his heat race, he went on to post the highest consistency score of the night, a 96.4. As we’ve seen time and time again, the rougher the track, the better Stewart performs.

450 Analysis:

They say the championship truly begins at Daytona. The toughest, grittiest, most punishing track on the supercross calendar, Daytona always delivers drama. One thing was certain heading into Saturday night: we were guaranteed a new 450-class winner. But what unfolded was beyond expectations.

Cooper Webb, a four-time runner-up at Daytona, was hungry for his long-overdue victory. Chase Sexton, fresh off three straight third-place finishes at the speedway, seemed poised for a breakthrough. But in a stunning display of grit, Ken Roczen, who hadn’t placed better than fifth at Daytona in the last three seasons, defied the odds. Riding what many believe is his best supercross season before his arm injury, Roczen put it all together to capture his first-ever Daytona win.

Track Breakdown:

The track map above highlights which riders logged the fastest average sector times throughout the grueling 20-minute main event. Coming into the weekend, Roczen’s weakness had been the sand and flat sections. But with a few strategic bike changes, he turned that weakness into an advantage by being fastest in both the sand and the flats!

Meanwhile, Sexton was electric in qualifying, topping both sessions before disaster struck. A brutal crash on the opening lap of his heat race forced him into the LCQ just to make the main event. In full damage-control mode, Sexton still found a way to shine, particularly in the very rhythm lane that nearly ended his night by claiming the fastest sector time there.

Below, the table compares key riders’ average and fastest sector times, along with their consistency scores. Even if they didn’t set the absolute fastest time in the sector, their ability to maintain speed across the entire race tells the real story.

By analyzing these sector consistency scores, we pinpointed the most challenging section of the track, the split-lane sand. It wasn't even close. With an average consistency score of just 33.0, it was by far the most difficult sector of the night. And yet, Roczen mastered it better than anyone, proving that when it mattered most, he had the confidence and control to claim victory.

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	C. Sexton	8.40	8.11	77.2
2	J. Cooper	11.82	11.36	75.6
3	K. Roczen	4.17	3.95	71.9
4	K. Roczen	23.02	22.38	80.1
5	A. Plessinger	10.80	10.21	65.3
6	C. Sexton	11.18	10.59	73.5
7	C. Webb	10.68	10.46	83.1

Lap Time Breakdown:

In the histogram above, we usually see clear clusters of lap times or patterns that reveal the fastest riders and how the race evolved. This time? Not so much. The only way to sum up Daytona this week: messy.

And the rider consistency scores prove it. The average score for all riders was low at just 84. This is for a seasoned 450 class where scores of 88 or higher are the norm. Simply put, only a handful of riders managed to maintain fast lap times. While Roczen, Webb, and Cooper kept their averages in the high 1:20s, the field only had an average lap time of 1:24. Daytona didn’t just test speed, it tested survival.

When it came to raw pace, Roczen led the way, clocking the fastest lap five times across 16 timed laps. Webb and Anderson followed with three each, while Cooper and Sexton snagged two. Plessinger was the only other rider to top a lap—just once.

450 Main Event:

RIDER	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
K. Roczen	1:20.45	1:18.96	1:18.02	87.8
C. Webb	1:20.82	1:19.50	1:17.16	94.7
J. Cooper	1:20.90	1:19.59	1:17.91	92.0
A. Plessinger	1:21.07	1:19.34	1:18.15	86.4
C. Sexton	1:21.48	1:19.41	1:17.82	92.9

Top Performances:

Ken Roczen was simply untouchable in the main event. While Cooper Webb applied pressure about halfway through the race, Roczen was in full command. His average lap time was nearly four-tenths of a second faster per lap than Webb’s. And if that wasn’t enough, he was the only rider to dip below the 1:19 mark, laying down a blistering 1:18.96 lap, almost a quarter-second faster than anyone else.

Despite often being underestimated by Supercross fans, Justin Cooper continues to prove his worth in the 450 class. In just his sophomore season, he was one of only three riders to maintain an average lap time under 1:21. Starting from ninth, he cut through the pack, showing impressive racecraft. He had the speed in Arlington too. He could be a serious contender for podiums and eventually wins.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency Scores:

Malcolm Stewart may not have made headlines in the main event, but his riding was rock-solid. After winning his heat race, he went on to post the highest consistency score of the night, a 96.4. As we’ve seen time and time again, the rougher the track, the better Stewart performs. The same can be said for Justin Barcia, who recorded the second-highest consistency score.

Lap 99 Analysis:

*Lap 99 takes each riders' best segment time regardless of lap and combines them as a theoretical best lap time.

Chase Sexton’s night didn’t go as planned, but his speed is still undeniable. His Lap 99 time ranked second fastest—only behind Cooper Webb. In a surprising twist, Webb, Sexton, and Cooper all posted faster Lap 99 times than Roczen. But raw speed isn’t everything. Roczen’s edge came from his ability to string together consistent, mistake-free laps, which ultimately secured him the victory.

Head-to-Head:

The lap-by-lap breakdown between Roczen and Webb (below) reveals the ebb and flow of their battle. Webb’s first mistake came on Lap 10 when a stall cost him significant time, giving Roczen his largest lap-time advantage of the night. But Webb immediately responded, closing the gap. That charge was short-lived though after another costly mistake. With a massive championship points gain over Sexton on the line, Webb wisely shifted to damage control, ensuring a solid podium finish rather than risking it all.

250 Analysis:

In the 250s, Daytona was all about RJ Hampshire. Last year’s winner, Tom Vialle, challenged Hampshire early and even led the first few laps, but Hampshire quickly took control and cruised to victory. The 250 East division also saw another red flag restart, making it three red-flagged main events in a row for this coast. We send our prayers to Levi Kitchen, who sustained multiple fractured vertebrae and a broken collarbone after a brutal crash.

Track Breakdown:

Hampshire was truly dominant, posting the fastest average sector time on over half of the track. Even in the sections where he wasn’t the fastest, he barely lost any time to his competitors. He desperately needed this win to stay in contention for the East Coast championship.

In a division stacked with veteran riders, Hampshire’s level of dominance was surprising. Only Anstie, Hammaker, and Vialle managed to make their mark on the track map, with Anstie clawing his way from dead last to sixth. Vialle is steadily finding his pace again, and the East division is shaping up to be a thrilling championship fight heading into next week’s shootout.

Just like the 450s, the 250s struggled mightily in the sand, making it by far the most difficult sector of the race.

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	R. Hampshire	8.48	8.26	80.8
2	M. Anstie	11.64	11.30	74.0
3	S. Hammaker	4.42	4.21	72.6
4	T. Vialle	23.32	22.68	78.7
5	R. Hampshire	10.60	10.38	82.4
6	R. Hampshire	11.15	11.00	84.2
7	R. Hampshire	10.86	10.62	79.4

Lap Time Breakdown:

The lap time histogram above highlights the clear separation between 250 riders, with blank spots showing gaps in skill. The top cluster included Hampshire, Vialle, Hammaker, and Hymas, followed by distinct tiers of riders.

Despite having a smoother track than the 450s, the 250 class matched them in consistency, averaging an 84.6 score. Hampshire was the fastest for more than half the race, taking six of the 11 fastest laps, while Vialle had three and both Kitchen and Hammaker claimed one.

It's difficult to gauge Kitchen’s true speed, as he crashed after completing just three laps. While the data is limited, it's likely he had the pace to move into second.