Key Highlights:

• Getting Hot: Chase Sexton was relentless. His average lap was nearly 0.6 seconds quicker than Cooper Webb’s, but the median tells the real story: Sexton was 1.4 seconds faster using median lap time.
   
  
• Closer Than It Looked: Seth Hammaker got the better start and never flinched. RJ Hampshire had him on median lap time and even edged him on 10-lap consistency, but this wasn’t a sprint. It was 18 laps of pressure, and Hammaker withstood every ounce.
  
  
• Lap 99 Stat Bomb: Even on paper, Sexton was untouchable. His actual fastest lap was quicker than Webb’s Lap 99 theoretical best by 0.03 seconds. Let that sink in.
  
  
• True Grit: Henry Miller stole the show in the shadows. After a hard heat race crash, he won the LCQ, landed a career-best 8th, and posted the highest LITPro consistency score in the class at 89.5.
  
  
• Must Win: Webb, despite having an off night, still built a 15-second gap over third-place Aaron Plessinger. That leaves Sexton with no choice but to keep winning.
  

  
  

450 Analysis:

Only one word truly captures the 450SX Main Event from East Rutherford—rare. Sure, some might've called it a boring race, but what Chase Sexton did was anything but ordinary. A 14.6-second win margin over Cooper Webb doesn’t fully reflect the performance. Sexton looked on pace to win by 20+ seconds before easing off in the final 3 laps. And just like that, the momentum has shifted. Sexton looks untouchable, but his path to the 2025 SX Championship hasn’t gotten any easier.

At this point, it's safe to pencil in Sexton and Webb for the top two podium spots in the remaining three rounds unless something dramatic happens. Webb, despite having an off night, still built a 15-second gap over third-place Aaron Plessinger. That leaves Sexton with no choice but to keep winning.

Track Breakdown:

The track map above highlights average sector times across the entire main. The story? Total domination. Sexton owned the track. More surprising was Webb’s absence from the top in any sector. His lap time rankings, sector splits, and overall consistency felt... off. And yet? He still finished second. If this is Webb on a down night, Sexton’s road ahead is anything but easy.

Despite not leading a single sector, Webb was 2nd fastest in three, and never fell below 4th. He stayed in the hunt. But Sexton? He was the fastest rider in nearly 60% of the track’s layout and never ranked worse than 3rd in any sector. Webb only beat him in Sector 5, and that margin was just 0.03 seconds. 

Using the median consistency score across the field (table below), Sector 3, the second whoop section, was the toughest. It lines up with what we would predict in theory. Whoops have been brutal all season, and this one was no exception. Coming right after the first set, the second whoop section was chewed up, slow on entry, and unforgiving. It was the spot where mistakes multiplied, and the fastest separated from the rest.

Lap Time Breakdown:

At first glance, the histogram looks somewhat normal. But upon closer inspection, Chase Sexton owns 9 of the 15 fastest laps. That’s not normal. And neither is the shape of the lap time curve. Instead of the typical bell-shaped distribution, we see a sharp spike around the 55-second mark, revealing how quickly this track degraded.

Why? A brutal combo of conditions. The track broke down fast, and this was a daytime race in 80+ degree heat. After a string of cool and rainy weekends, this must have been a shock to the system. If this is a preview of who’s ready for the grind of Pro Motocross, Sexton’s your early pick for outdoors.

We had 23 complete laps, and here’s how the fastest ones broke down:

• Sexton: 15
• Webb: 2
• Plessinger: 2
• Cooper: 2
• Ferrandis: 1
  
• Stewart: 1

If East Rutherford proved anything, it’s that consistency takes a hit when the temps rise and the track breaks down. Even with less than ideal conditions last week in Philadelphia, we still saw higher consistency. This layout was just tougher.

• Average consistency score: 78.1
• Median score: 82.1

That’s a noticeable drop, and the data tells the story riders didn’t. Most didn’t mention conditions in their post-race comments, but the numbers say it loud and clear: this one was a grind.

450 Main Event:

We’ve kept median lap time in the mix again this week — it’s a great way to cut through the noise. Riders are sorted by fastest median lap time.

Top Performances:

No matter how you slice it, Sexton was the standout in East Rutherford. His average lap was nearly 0.6 seconds quicker than Cooper Webb’s, but the median paints an even clearer picture: Sexton was almost 1.4 seconds faster. He didn’t just clock quicker laps, he held that pace longer. Even more telling, Sexton laid down six of the seven fastest laps of the race, all within his opening six laps.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:

When it came to 10-lap consistency, the veterans showed up:

• Joey Savatgy: 93.4
• Dean Wilson: 91.2
• Christian Craig: 90.5

Only three riders broke into the 90s, and it wasn’t the ones you’d expect. Sexton was middle of the pack. Webb had one of his worst outings of the season, ranking 5th from the bottom. It’s a testament to how rough the track was and how key it was to manage the chaos.

Lap 99 Analysis:

*Lap 99 takes each riders' best segment time regardless of lap and combines them as a theoretical best lap time.

Sexton dominates again—no surprise there. But here’s the stat that really says it all:

Webb’s Lap 99 time was actually slower than Sexton’s real fastest lap—by 0.03 seconds.

When your best possible lap can’t beat the other guy’s real lap? That’s not just a gap—it’s a statement.

250 Analysis:

The 250 East division has been nothing short of wild, and East Rutherford added another twist. For the first time in three rounds, we leave without a tie atop the leaderboard, but the separation is razor-thin. Seth Hammaker's second win of the season handed him the red plate outright, but only by three points over RJ Hampshire.

This one boiled down to starts and mistakes. You could make a strong case that Hampshire, or even Nate Thrasher, had what it took to win. But races aren't won on paper. Hammaker kept it clean, kept it upright, and took the win while the others left the door open. Let’s dig into how it unfolded.

Track Breakdown:

The sector breakdown paints a clear picture: Thrasher had the speed to win. He topped both whoop sections and even snatched another sector along the way. That kind of pace usually ends with a win, not a 5th place. But after his crash, Thrasher’s lap times never quite recovered. 

Hampshire’s night mirroredWebb's in the 450s. He had the pace to gap most of the field, but just couldn’t quite string everything together to beat Hammaker. As we will see in a moment, Hampshire's median lap time topped Hammaker's.

As for the track itself? The 250s felt the full force of the tough layout, especially the whoops. The second set was again the most punishing, with low consistency scores and a clear impact on lap times.

Lap Time Breakdown:

Unlike the 450s, the 250 lap time histogram looks closer to normal, but there is a story to tell. The first spike near the 55-second mark was your podium-level pace. Hammaker lapped up to 7th place and did it with authority. Between the spike at 55 second and the dip just before 60 seconds marks the mid-pack riders, roughly 4th through 9th. After that it drops off fast.

Out of 18 timed laps, here’s how the fast laps stacked up:

• Hammaker: 6
  
• Thrasher: 6
• Hampshire: 5
  
• Vialle: 1

Thrasher was on fire early, he was the fastest rider on track in three of the first four laps before his race unraveled. 

Conditions took their toll on the 250 class too, and it shows in the consistency data. This wasn't the smooth, flowing kind of race where rhythm ruled.

• Average consistency score: 61.2
• Median score: 73.6

250 Main Event:

Sorted by top 5 median times.

Top Performances:

This one came down to execution. Seth Hammaker got out front early and stayed there with a mistake-free ride. While RJ Hampshire edged him on median lap time and nudged ahead on 10-lap consistency, it wasn’t enough. This wasn’t a 10-lap sprint—it was 18 laps of holding strong, and Hammaker did exactly that.

What really stands out is just how close the top four were in pace. Their average lap times were separated by less than half a second, and their medians were split by only 0.7 seconds. After that, the drop in speed was sharp, this division has a clear top tier.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:

While most eyes were on the front, Henry Miller quietly delivered one of the grittiest rides of the night. After a gnarly crash in his heat race, he bounced back to win the LCQ, then rode his way to a career-best 8th place. Oh, and he topped the class in LITPro consistency with an impressive 89.5 score. 

Lap 99 Analysis:

*Lap 99 takes each riders' best segment time regardless of lap and combines them as a theoretical best lap time.

Based on best individual sector times, Hammaker's theoretical lap came out 0.36 seconds faster than anyone else’s.

And this isn't just theory, he was the only rider to dip into the 51-second range in the main event. Combine that with being over a second faster than the field in qualifying, and it’s clear: Hammaker found another gear this weekend.