Key Highlights

• Battling Through the Pack: In Moto 1, Jett and Chase sliced through the field at a blistering pace, staying razor sharp lap after lap. Jett posted a 93.7 consistency score, but Sexton edged him with a class-leading 94.7.
  
  
• The Best and the Rest: Haiden Deegan and Jo Shimoda are in a league of their own. In Moto 1, they claimed 15 of the 16 fastest laps and gapped the field by more than 3 seconds per lap.
  
  
• Whoops Win Races: In Moto 1, Chase Sexton tore through the sand whoops nearly a quarter-second faster than anyone else. That edge was key to carving through the pack and reeling in Hunter for the win.
  
  
• 450-Level Pace: Jo Shimoda laid down the fastest 250 lap of the day, just 0.3 seconds off Jett Lawrence’s best in the 450 class. Still, it’s Deegan’s late-race intensity that keeps tilting the scales in his favor.
  

  
  

450 Analysis

Ironman gave us a ton to talk about this week. Between crazy stat lines and wild storylines, it felt great to return to racing after a two-week break. The beauty of looking at the racing through an analytical lens is I don’t have to dig into the drama of Jett Lawrence’s one-lap penalty. I can also explore the what-ifs.  On top of that, we got some revealing insights for the 2025 Motocross of Nations. With Ironman as the host track, both the Australian and American squads look stacked. Between the four 450 riders representing those teams, they flat-out owned the stat sheets.

Track Breakdown:

450 Moto 1:

450 Moto 2:

Lap Time Breakdown:

Lap time distributions between the two motos don’t look dramatically different, but Moto 1 was definitely the tougher race for both classes. James Stewart nailed the call on the broadcast: as the track dried, it became easier for riders across the board to throw down consistent laps.

Jett set the fastest lap in both motos. And here’s the wild part, his best time in Moto 1 was a 2:04.218, and in Moto 2 it was a 2:04.213. He was laser-locked no matter if he was charging through traffic or leading.

Even so, Moto 2 was slower for a lot of riders. Median lap time dropped by almost three seconds, and only Jett, Hunter, and Chase were hitting laps comparable to their Moto 1 pace.

Moto 1 Fast Laps (16 Timed Laps)

• J. Lawrence: 8
• Sexton: 6
• H. Lawrence: 2
  

Class Average Consistency: 76.7
Class Median Consistency: 88.0

Moto 2 Fast Laps (16 Timed Laps)

• J. Lawrence: 7
• H. Lawrence: 5
• Tomac: 3
• Barcia: 1
  

Class Average Consistency: 77.3
Class Median Consistency: 88.5

450 Moto 1 Analysis

Rider's sorted by median lap time.

Top Performances:

Moto 1 proved that no matter where Jett starts, he’s coming for the front. Penalty aside, he was in just as strong a position to win as Sexton. He was the fastest guy on the track, no question. But Sexton’s ride deserves just as much attention. This might have been one of the best motos of his 450 career. Confident, aggressive, and finally willing to go toe-to-toe with Jett, he put on a show.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:

Both Jett and Chase worked through the field at an insane pace and kept their focus razor sharp. Jett scored a 93.7 and Sexton edged him at 94.7.

Lap 99 Analysis:

Sexton didn’t match Jett’s outright fastest lap, but his theoretical best was over a quarter-second quicker than Jett and Hunter. His speed through the sand was a big part of that advantage. 

450 Moto 2 Analysis

Rider's sorted by median lap time.

Top Performances:

Eli Tomac having the fastest median lap time in Moto 2 wasn’t on my bingo card. But here’s how it happened. Jett blasted to the front riding hot and a little mad. Once he got there, he backed off hard. His median and average lap times actually slipped behind Tomac’s, and his consistency score of 72.9 shows it. With no shot at the overall and Sexton’s DNF, Jett had zero incentive to keep pushing. The statement was loud and clear, he’s still the guy.

Sexton’s absence from the chart is obvious, five laps before crashing out doesn’t give much data to work with. The track also dramatically slowed as the race progressed. But he was the only rider anywhere close to Jett’s early pace, and if he’d gotten on Jett’s rear wheel, we might have seen something epic.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:

The field as a whole showed better consistency in Moto 2, but most of the top five actually scored lower. Dylan Ferrandis, in his first race back, topped the chart at 93.8.

Lap 99 Analysis:

If you still need proof that Jett came out swinging, his Moto 2 Lap 99 time beat his own Moto 1 theoretical best by more than half a second. Nobody else was close.

250 Analysis

There’s the best, and then there’s the rest. Right now, “the best” is a club with only two members: Haiden Deegan and Jo Shimoda.

When Deegan can go from seven seconds down to seven seconds up in just a handful of laps, all you can do is sit back and watch. Even Shimoda, dripping with sarcasm, joked afterward that Deegan must already be on a 450 with the way he can carve through the field and drop the hammer on anyone in sight.

To his credit, Shimoda is keeping things interesting, and a 2-2 on the day is no small feat. In Moto 1, the two of them gapped third place by almost a full minute.

Track Breakdown:

250 Moto 1:

250 Moto 2:

Lap Time Breakdown:

Still not buying the “best and the rest” label? Look at that little blip around 125 seconds on the lap time distribution chart. That’s Deegan and Shimoda, and no one else.

In Moto 1, their fastest laps were 2.5 seconds quicker than the next best, and they were flirting with 450-level pace. Shimoda, who actually had the fastest lap of the race, was just 0.3 seconds off Jett Lawrence’s best.

Across the 32 timed laps on the day, Deegan and Shimoda owned 26 of the top lap times.

Moto 1 Fast Laps (16 Timed Laps)

• Deegan: 10
• Shimoda:  5
  
• Forkner: 1
  

Class Average Consistency: 63.0
Class Median Consistency: 84.1

Moto 2 Fast Laps (16 Timed Laps)

• Deegan: 7
  
• Shimoda: 4
  
• Kitchen 3
  
• Vialle, Adams: 1

Class Average Consistency: 77.5
Class Median Consistency: 85.6

250 Moto 1 Analysis

Rider's sorted by median lap time.

Top Performances:

How do you pull nearly a one-minute lead in just 17 laps? Average over three seconds per lap faster than third place. That’s exactly what Deegan and Shimoda did to Marchbanks and company.

Shimoda joked that Deegan might be on a 450, but maybe we should take a peek under Jo’s hood too.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:

Deegan posted a 92 consistency score. So not only was he three seconds quicker than most of the field, he was more consistent than anyone. When he’s in that form, he’s untouchable.

Lap 99 Analysis:

Deegan and Shimoda’s Lap 99 times once again matched up with the 450 class. Both had room to go faster, but their real fastest laps absolutely buried the rest of the field’s “theoretical best.”

250 Moto 2 Analysis

Rider's sorted by median lap time.

Top Performances:

Starting near the front meant Deegan didn’t need to burn the house down. He controlled the race with calculated pace. People underestimate his race craft, but it’s clear he knows exactly when to go all-out and when to manage.

Only Shimoda could stay anywhere near his pace, and even then, Jo is stuck living in a giant shadow. Still, this might be the best season of Shimoda’s career.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:

Shimoda’s 94.4 consistency score led the class, proof that while he was losing time to Deegan, he was still absolutely locked in.

Lap 99 Analysis:

Vialle continues to puzzle. The two-time MX2 champ has yet to make his mark in Pro Motocross, but maybe there’s a flicker of hope. His Lap 99 time shows he can hang with the front, but we’re still waiting to see it in the heat of battle.