Moto Metrics: '25 San Diego

January 20, 2025 Arich Knaub

Key Highlights:

A Close Margin: Through 23 laps, Eli Tomac and Jett Lawrence were separated by an average of just 0.075 seconds per lap, marking the closest margin we've seen yet. While Tomac found bursts of speed to maintain his lead, Jett consistently clicked off laps with an unbelievable 98 consistency score.
Déjà Vu: Chase Sexton brought out his best Beast Mode impression, passing 16 riders to climb back to sixth place. He managed to set the third-fastest average lap time and an impressive 96 consistency score.
Starts are Key: Without a strong starting position, Haiden Deegan continues to find himself working through the pack. Despite this, he still clocked the fastest 250 Main Event lap time, beating the next best by over a quarter of a second.
Piecing It Together: Roczen’s Lap 99 time was the second quickest. However, his best lap time was still over a second slower. Roczen clearly had the speed but couldn’t string together consistent laps like his younger self.
Rookie on the Rise: Cole Davies led the opening laps of San Diego before going off track. Despite this, the rookie showcased promising speed. His Lap 99 time was on par with Deegan and Beaumer’s, and he set the fastest lap time in three of the final four laps of the race.

450 Analysis:

After a tight qualifying battle with just 0.03 seconds separating the top three riders (J. Lawrence, Tomac, and Sexton) at one point early in the day, fans anticipated a three-rider showdown for the night show. Their wish almost came true as Jett Lawrence and Eli Tomac surged to the front early, delivering a spectacular 20-minute showdown fans had been hoping for since Jett moved to the 450 class. Ultimately, Tomac’s experience led him to victory, securing at least one 450 Main Event race win for 11 consecutive years—a new record. However, things went awry for championship points leader Chase Sexton. After nearly being landed on during the opening triple, Sexton lost the front end in the following corner, costing him the championship lead. He managed to remount and move from last place to sixth.

Track Breakdown:

Before diving into this week's timing analysis, it's important to note that live timing malfunctioned for 5 of the 7 segments on lap 17. This persisted throughout the remainder of the race. Fortunately, the race was only 23 laps, so we remain confident in delivering our usual race breakdown. In the track map above, we averaged sector times across the entire race (from the first full lap to the finish) to denote which rider was quickest on average. The track deteriorated significantly, and merely noting the fastest time doesn’t provide a complete picture. Unsurprisingly, Tomac and Lawrence were the only two riders to record multiple fastest sectors. What is surprising is that Roczen had the fastest average time in Sector 1 despite losing multiple positions in the 90-degree corner after the finish.

Below, we break down how each rider's average time compared to their fastest. We also provide LITPro 10-lap consistency scores for each sector, helping identify the most challenging sector based on the lowest average consistency. Sector 6 (Whoops) was the most difficult by far, trailing by about 10 consistency points in both classes compared to the rest of the track. The whoops became treacherous, with riders taking various lines—from blitzing down the middle at the start to Tomac finding a smooth line on the far right side near the end.

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	K. Roczen	8.856	8.596	86.8
2	E. Tomac	9.138	8.891	85.2
3	J. Lawrence	9.532	9.333	93.1
4	J. Lawrence	5.720	5.577	87.2
5	E. Tomac	9.724	9.466	82.1
6	C. Webb	5.872	5.155	73.3
7	J. Lawrence	4.035	3.92	78.2

While not known for his whoop speed, Cooper Webb found speed through them all night long. Check this out. In the video below we use our Vision software in the LITPro app to determine the speed difference between Cooper Webb and Eli Tomac. Here we compare Webb's whoop speed from the Main Event to Tomac's speed in his Heat 2 win (where the whoops were in much better condition). Even still, Webb clearly has the whoop jumping figured out as he set the fastest times in the section.

Lap Time Breakdown:

The histogram above illustrates lap time distributions throughout the race. From this more typical "bell curve," we can see that few riders consistently managed fast times. As we'll explore later, only three riders could do so. Most lap times fell under 56 seconds, with over half under 55 seconds. The top lap time of 52.323 seconds left little room for error on this track.

By calculating the fastest sector time for each segment, we determined the ultimate Lap 99 (or fastest theoretical lap time). For the 450s, that time was 50.733 seconds. The fastest time recorded all day was in qualifying by Chase Sexton, who clocked 51.566 seconds. Although the track deteriorated heavily, it remained fast throughout the night, unfortunately causing several tough crashes.

Overall, the 450 riders remain incredibly consistent. Over half the riders scored 90 or higher in consistency. The depth of this class this year is unmatched. Consistency is only part of the puzzle, with speed being the other. Throughout the 23-lap race, Jett Lawrence and Eli Tomac dominated the top times. Often trading fast laps, Jett squeaked out 10, while Tomac only had 9 despite winning the race. Jett couldn’t close the gap.

450 Main Event: Top Average Lap Times

RIDER	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
E. Tomac	53.275	52.323	51.165	90.8
J. Lawrence	53.350	52.820	51.805	97.8
C. Sexton	53.732	52.965	51.933	95.6
K. Roczen	54.199	52.989	51.786	89.7
C. Webb	54.204	53.210	52.315	95.1
H. Lawrence	54.275	53.713	52.366	96.4

Top Performances:

This weekend was dominated by Tomac and Jett Lawrence. Their average lap times were separated by only 0.075 seconds. However, Tomac clocked the fastest times on the track, beating Jett’s quickest lap by half a second.

Chase Sexton also delivered an impressive performance. Battling through the pack, he passed 16 riders and managed the third-fastest average lap time despite finishing sixth overall.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency Scores:

The bike changes Jett made during the week worked like magic. Not only was he incredibly fast, but he also topped the consistency scores with 97.8—the highest this season and one of the highest ever in a pro race. If not for Eli Tomac, Jett would have had an outstanding night.

Sexton was also impresssive, achieving nearly 96 in consistency. Despite working through traffic the entire race, he found smooth passing lanes and consistently clicked off laps.

Lap 99 Analysis:

*Lap 99 takes each riders' best segment time regardless of lap and combines them as a theoretical best lap time.

It’s no surprise that Tomac set the fastest Lap 99 time, given his average lap speed and overall fastest lap. Surprisingly, Roczen’s Lap 99 time was the second quickest, though his best lap time was over a second slower. Roczen had the speed but couldn’t maintain it lap after lap like in his younger days. He was the only top-six rider with a consistency score below 90.

A Closer Look:

Although fans were thrilled to see a Lawrence vs. Tomac battle, the outcome could have easily reversed if Jett had taken the lead first. Despite both riders entering first/second place in the same corner, Eli gained a few seconds in the opening laps. The chart below shows the time difference in lap times between the two riders. Eli was blisteringly fast in the opening laps, and Jett clawed back in the second quarter. After trading blows in the second half, Tomac’s heater on lap 14 ultimately sealed his victory. Each time Jett closed the gap, Tomac seemed to find another gear.

Tomac often found that extra speed in the whoops. While Jett opted to go down the center line to be safe (his words), Tomac often tried blitzing the whoops throughout the entire main event. Even if this meant going to the far right side inches from the tuff blocks. Check out our Vision analysis from both riders in the Main Event.

250 Analysis:

The 250 Main Event was full of excitement. Rookie Cole Davies put on an impressive performance, leading the opening laps before a brief off-track excursion. He showcases flashes of Jett Lawrence’s rookie year. However, Julien Beaumer capitalized on Davies' inexperience, riding smoothly to his first-ever Main Event win and taking the series points lead. The race was filled with drama, from Shimoda fighting to an impressive 7th place despite broken fingers to Deegan's poor starts hindering him again. The conventional championship favorites face an uphill battle in this short series.

The top 250 riders are beginning to separate from the rest of the pack. Unlike the 450s, where a non-top 5 rider might make the track chart, the 250s were dominated by podium finishers. Despite finishing first and third, it was the Beaumer and Deegan show. We eagerly await their battle once Deegan improves his starts. Jordan smith continues to look confident with the brand new team, but hasn't been flashy yet even while finishing second. The 250s struggled mightily in the whoops, managing just a 60 consistency score in that section. Beaumer stood out as the strongest rider in the field, topping sector times and consistency scores.

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	J. Beaumer	8.949	8.765	87.6
2	H. Deegan	9.442	9.082	78.6
3	J. Beaumer	9.602	9.318	86.5
4	J. Smith	6.167	6.058	93.8
5	H. Deegan	9.914	9.560	81.1
6	J. Beaumer	5.993	5.737	80.2
7	H. Deegan	4.141	4.034	87.4

Lap Time Breakdown:

The lap chart shows how much better the track was for the 250 riders. Lap times were more consistent and evenly spread. The 250 class had 75% of lap times within a three-second range, with only a few managing under 54 seconds. The youth of the class was evident, with only half the riders scoring over 85 in ten-lap consistency.

Despite leading the opening laps, Cole Davies only set the fastest lap once while leading but added three more in the final four laps. Davies, Beaumer, and Deegan each set four fastest laps during the 17-lap Main Event. Ryder DiFrancesco also looked quick, setting two fastest laps.