Key Highlights:
- Head-to-Head: Chase Sexton may have edged out Cooper Webb in average lap time by a tenth of a second, but Webb held the upper hand in 4 of 6 track sectors head-to-head. Biding his time, Webb struck when it mattered most, snatching victory in the closing moments.
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Tougher than Daytona: Seattle’s deep ruts and shifting lines made consistency a nightmare. No rider cracked a 90 score, with the 450 class averaging just 76 and the 250s struggling at 71—some of the lowest numbers we've ever seen.
- Untouchable: Cole Davies wasn’t just fast, he was untouchable. He set the fastest lap, maintained the best average lap time, and outpaced Marchbanks and Deegan by a staggering 0.36 seconds per lap.
- Can't Keep the Speed: In both the 250 and 450 classes, the gap between riders’ fastest and average lap times hovered around two seconds, an unheard-of margin for a 48-second lap.
- What Happened: Julien Beaumer had the raw speed to fight for the win, but by Lap 16, his race unraveled. His times crashed from the 49s to the 52s in a single lap. Yet, his Lap 99 time, over two seconds faster than anyone else, suggests something went wrong beyond just fading pace.
450 Analysis:
Seattle Supercross 2025 may have dodged the rain on race day, but the track still felt the effects of a waterlogged week. With an entire layout overhaul to accommodate the conditions, many, including myself, expected a traditional and 'boring' race. But then, something incredible happened. As the ruts deepened and the track deteriorated, it transformed into a battleground of skill and adaptability. Suddenly, passing opportunities emerged from the chaos, making for one of the most unpredictable and intense races of the season.
Control? That was a myth. Even as Cooper Webb and Chase Sexton broke away from the pack, neither had the race fully in hand and both made uncharacteristical mistakes. This was pure survival. So, let’s break down one of the gnarliest tracks of the year from an analytical perspective.
Track Breakdown:
In the track maps above, highlights are done by fastest average time. Analyzing these times, one thing immediately stands out, Sector 3 was an anomaly in both classes. The fastest riders in this segment weren’t the usual suspects, and it throws a wrench into typical expectations. Despite Webb and Sexton dominating the front, they only claimed three of the fastest sector times combined. In a direct battle, Webb outpaced Sexton in four of six sectors based on average time.
Sector 4 also raised eyebrows. It had the lowest consistency across the board, making it the most difficult sector statistically. The surprising part? It didn’t appear particularly difficult on TV. My theory? Riders may have been inadvertently clipping Sector 4 early, throwing off the timing and creating artificially short Sector 3 splits while inflating Sector 4 times. This could explain the atypical fastest riders in Sector 3 and the consistency issues in Sector 4.
| SEG | Rider | Avg. Time |
Fastest Time (All) | Sector Consistency (All) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | K. Roczen | 6.41 | 5.75 | 66.6 |
| 2 | D. Ferrandis | 6.05 | 5.58 | 67.5 |
| 3 | F. Noren | 10.07 | 9.02 | 56.7 |
| 4 | C. Webb | 8.38 | 5.77 | 27.7 |
| 5 | C. Sexton | 9.99 | 9.20 | 71.1 |
| 6 | C. Webb | 6.94 | 6.46 | 72.3 |
Lap Time Breakdown:
However, this track was challenging in many ways. First in the lap time histogram above, notice few fast laps were recorded. The time delta between most riders' fastest lap and their average lap hovered around two seconds, almost unheard of in Supercross. The track's soft, rut-riddled surface proved a relentless challenge, yielding some of the lowest consistency scores of the season. The average was a mere 76, and not a single rider broke the 90-mark, a first for 2025.
Three riders stood above the rest: Sexton, Webb, and Aaron Plessinger. Fittingly, they filled the podium. Across 25 timed laps, Sexton notched 9 fastest laps, Webb had 7, Plessinger and Ken Roczen each secured 4, and Justin Cooper added 1 to his name. Despite matching Plessinger’s fastest lap count, Roczen didn’t have to claw his way through the pack like Plessinger did. With a better start, could Plessinger have been a legitimate contender for the win?
450 Main Event:
| RIDER | Average Time |
Fastest Time |
LAP 99 |
Consistency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Sexton | 49.27 | 47.14 | 43.59 | 83.8 |
| C. Webb | 49.36 | 46.95 | 43.33 | 77.5 |
| A. Plessinger | 49.90 | 47.20 | 45.27 | 77.8 |
| K. Roczen | 50.32 | 47.18 | 44.60 | 81.3 |
| D. Ferrandis | 50.38 | 47.78 | 45.62 | 80.3 |
Top Performances:
The battle between Sexton and Webb was as much mental as it was physical. Sexton’s charge to the front made it seem like he would run away with the race, but Webb was lurking. He matched Roczen’s pace early, then turned up the intensity as soon as Sexton hit the front. In true Webb fashion, he pounced in the closing laps, snatching victory just when it seemed out of reach.
While Sexton had a slightly faster average lap time, just 0.09 seconds, it was Webb who played the long game, staying close and striking when the opportunity arose. Their dominance was staggering; by race’s end, they had gapped the field by nearly 16 seconds.
LITPro 10-Lap Consistency Scores:
Consistency wasn’t a strong suit for anyone in Seattle, but Sexton was the best out of the Top 5 finishers with an 83.8. This was a calculated approach from him, choosing stability over outright speed. But once lapped traffic came into play, it was clear that even his methodical strategy couldn’t keep things under control.
Malcolm Stewart posted the highest consistency score of the class with an 86.1. While that’s impressive relative to the night, it’s the lowest peak score we’ve ever recorded (since MX 2024).
Lap 99 Analysis:
*Lap 99 takes each riders' best segment time regardless of lap and combines them as a theoretical best lap time.
Webb wasn’t just fast, he was deceptive. While his raw speed wasn’t always apparent, he quietly set the fastest lap of the race and put together the best Lap 99 time, nearly a quarter-second ahead of Sexton. This means that, at his peak, Webb had a pace no one could match. It’s no surprise, then, that he excelled in Seattle’s rutted conditions. After all, his only wire-to-wire win this year came in Indianapolis, a track known for similar conditions.
In the end, Webb didn’t just win in Seattle, he outmaneuvered, outlasted, and outplayed the field. And as always, he did it when it mattered most.
250 Analysis:
The 250 class delivered just as much drama as the 450s, but one thing became crystal clear in Seattle, Cole Davies is the real deal. He made it look effortless too. When the gate dropped for the main event, he put on a clinic with precision and raw speed. His race craft was on full display, outpacing competitors in nearly every sector.
Meanwhile, championship contenders Julien Beaumer and Haiden Deegan had nights they’d rather forget. Beaumer looked like he was in the hunt for a win early on but faded midway through the race. Deegan, despite showing blistering speed in qualifying, couldn’t stay upright on the opening lap of either his heat race or the main event. However, salvaging a third-place finish and extending his points lead was still a net win
Track Breakdown:
Once again, we’re highlighting the fastest average sector times throughout the main event, and the biggest takeaway? Davies dominated. Being the fastest on half the track is a statement for any rider, but it is unheard of for a rookie.
Beyond that, Yamaha reigned supreme on the track map, with the only non-Yamaha representation coming from Beaumer in one sector. Even though Marchbanks was comfortably in second place, he rather not push the pace it seemed.
Unlike the 450s, the 250s didn’t struggle with S4 as much, but there was an unexpected name atop S3, Cole Thompson. The real challenge, though, was the whoops. The consistency scores confirmed what we saw on TV: the whoops were brutal. Davies gained nearly 0.4 seconds per lap in that section alone, creating a massive advantage. He was also the only rider blitzing the whoops every lap, including qualifying. That level of commitment is unreal
| SEG | Rider | Avg Time |
Fastest Time (All) |
Sector Consistency (All) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C. Davies | 6.27 | 5.87 | 63.8 |
| 2 | C. Davies | 5.88 | 5.50 | 50.0 |
| 3 | C. Thompson | 10.01 | 8.86 | 63.8 |
| 4 | H. Deegan | 8.41 | 6.24 | 69.0 |
| 5 | C. Davies | 9.77 | 9.13 | 63.2 |
| 6 | J. Beaumer | 7.17 | 6.80 | 69.4 |
Lap Time Breakdown:
Even though the 250s hit the track first, their conditions were anything but easy. With most of these riders still early in their pro careers, the data shows how much they struggled. The lap time distributions above are more stable than the 450s, but outliers past the 1:00 mark were glaring—well off pace for a track that rewarded mid-50s laps.
Consistency? Just as rough if not worse than the 450s. As a class, they averaged a meager 70.7, and no one cracked a 90 consistency score. Davies set the fastest lap on 8 occasions, Marchbanks and Deegan had 5 each, and Beaumer managed just 1.
250 Main Event:
| RIDER | Average Time |
Fastest Time |
LAP 99 |
Consistency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Davies | 49.21 | 47.14 | 45.15 | 77.9 |
| G. Marchbanks | 49.57 | 47.24 | 45.10 | 76.6 |
| H. Deegan | 49.57 | 47.49 | 45.11 | 81.9 |
| J. Beaumer | 49.88 | 47.58 | 43.06 | 82.3 |
| J. Shimoda | 51.03 | 48.01 | 47.20 | 75.3 |
Top Performances:
What more can be said? Cole Davies was untouchable. He didn’t just set the fastest lap, he backed it up with an incredible average lap time. Outpacing Marchbanks and Deegan by 0.36 seconds per lap, Davies proved he wasn’t just fast—he was consistently fast.
Deegan, despite his early crash, also put in a commendable ride. He had the speed to challenge Davies, but after fighting through the pack, lapped traffic became a nightmare. Him and Marchbanks having identical average lap times shows how hard Deegan pushed to get to third.
LITPro 10-Lap Consistency Scores:
Consistency was a struggle for everyone. Michael Mosiman posted the highest score in the class at just 85.4 Only six riders broke the 80 mark, further emphasizing how tough the track was. For Davies to excel in these conditions as a rookie speaks volumes about his talent.
Lap 99 Analysis:
*Lap 99 takes each riders' best segment time regardless of lap and combines them as a theoretical best lap time.
Julien Beaumer remains a mystery. Early on, he had the speed to contend, but by Lap 16, his race fell apart. His lap times plummeted from the 49s to the 52s in one lap. We are not sure what happened. Perhaps he aggravate his shoulder injury? Something was clearly wrong. Interestingly, his Lap 99 time shows he had the raw speed, gapping everyone by over two seconds. Whatever happened, it cost him a shot at the podium and maybe more.