Key Highlights

• Bench Racing Deegan vs. Jett:  In Moto 1, Deegan was electric early, clocking a 1:11.79, quicker than Jett’s 1:12.29. But once the racing lines set in, Deegan’s median fell to 1:14.16 versus Jett’s 1:13.48.
  
  
• Too Easy for a Playoff Round: LITPro’s 10-Lap Consistency metric hit some all-time highs in St. Louis. In Moto 2, when the track should’ve been at its roughest, 17 riders broke the 90 barrier. Twelve of them did it in both motos. That kind of consistency suggests the track was simply too easy. The SX elements were watered down, and the MX elements weren’t enough to push riders out of their comfort zone for a playoff round.
  
  
• Just Needs Sprinting Speed:  RJ Hampshire's rookie season has been rock solid, but his fastest lap was 1.3 seconds off the Lawrences, yet his median pace matched up well with the veterans. Hampshire’s got the long-race fitness; if he can find early-race sprint speed, he’ll be a real threat.
  
  
• Tomac's Toughest Test: Eli Tomac has battled plenty of rivals, but Jett Lawrence might be the final boss. In Moto 2, Tomac’s late charge nearly worked, but Jett absorbed it. Their lap times? Split by just 0.01 seconds on average and 0.03 on median. The only difference: Jett had the fastest lap, and the win.
  

450 Analysis

Heading into the second playoff round, the buzz centered on who might actually challenge two-time defending SMX champ Jett Lawrence. But after leaving St. Louis, the answer might be nobody but Jett himself.

450 Moto 1 gave us his worst start ever, followed by one of the greatest rides of his still-young, but already legendary, 450 career. From practically last to fourth (just a bike length off second) in 20 minutes plus a lap, on a track that was tough to pass on, it was incredible to watch. Internally, we joked after that first moto that we finally got the kind of race we’d been waiting for.

The rest of the night held up too. In the 450s, Hunter Lawrence controlled Moto 1 from start to finish, while Tomac brought it down to the wire in the closing laps of Moto 2. But with Jett carrying the points lead into the final round, he’s in prime position to lock down a third straight title.

Track Breakdown:

450 Moto 1:

Lap Time Breakdown:

Even with the SMX crew trying to mix in MX elements, the track raced mostly like a supercross-lite layout. The lap time histogram above makes that clear: times were spread evenly across both motos, and Moto 2 was just as fast as Moto 1. In Pro Motocross, that basically never happens.

The real smoking gun, though, is consistency.

LITPro’s 10-Lap Consistency metric hit some all-time highs in St. Louis. In Moto 2, when the track should’ve been at its roughest, 17 riders broke the 90 barrier. Twelve of them did it in both motos. That kind of consistency suggests the track was simply too easy. The SX elements were watered down, and the MX elements weren’t enough to push riders out of their comfort zone for a playoff round.

Moto 1 Fast Laps (17 Timed Laps)

• J. Lawrence: 8
  
• H. Lawrence: 7
• Roczen, Sexton: 1
  

Class Average Consistency: 88.8
Class Median Consistency: 90.3

Moto 2 Fast Laps (17 Timed Laps)

• J. Lawrence: 6
  
• H. Lawrence: 5
• Tomac: 4
• Cooper: 2

Class Average Consistency: 91.6
Class Median Consistency: 91.5

450 Moto 1 Analysis

Rider's sorted by median lap time.

Top Performances:

Despite starting dead last and still finishing fourth (within striking distance of second), Jett Lawrence was on another level. His times weren’t much faster on paper than race-winner Hunter’s, but context matters: while slicing through the field on a tough to pass track, Jett was still averaging 1.2 seconds quicker than Tomac and Roczen and by the end, nearly 2 full seconds. Give him one more lap, or even a couple straights, and second place was his.

RJ Hampshire has deservedly gotten a lot of praise on the 450 this summer and through SMX. He still lacks that sharp edge to run with the elite, but the rookie has impressed. His fastest lap was 1.3 seconds off the Lawrences, yet his median pace matched up well with the veterans. Hampshire’s got the long-race fitness; if he can find early-race sprint speed, he’ll be a real threat.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:

Hard to single anyone out when so many broke 90, but the nod goes to Jett. Putting up a 92.1 while constantly changing lines and moving through traffic was flat-out impressive.

Lap 99 Analysis:

This is where you see Jett’s trademark style: do just enough to win. Even in Moto 1, his Lap 99 time was more than half a second faster than Hunter’s, who himself had half a second over third-best. Jett clearly had more speed in the tank, he just used what he needed.

450 Moto 2 Analysis

Rider's sorted by median lap time.

Top Performances:

Eli Tomac has faced plenty of rivals in his career, but near the end he may have found his toughest in Jett Lawrence. Tomac’s late charge in Moto 2 nearly paid off, but Jett held firm. Their lap times were razor-close: separated by just 0.01 seconds on average, and 0.03 on median. Jett had the edge on fastest lap, and most importantly, the win.

Ken Roczen deserves a shout here too. He looked strong in both motos, and even while still working back from injury and missing summer racing, he remains a threat. Don’t forget, Roczen won Daytona earlier this year, and the Vegas finale is basically Daytona on steroids.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:

With so many riders breaking 90, let’s highlight the best combined effort. Eli Tomac averaged a 93.7 across both motos, with 11 other riders also hitting 90+ in both. Still, Tomac looked as sharp as ever heading into his final ride with the Blu Crew.

Lap 99 Analysis:

Once again, Jett dominated theoretical pace, like a cat toying with its prey. His Lap 99 time was half a second clear of the field, and even quicker than his Moto 1 benchmark. He always has more in reserve, and when he’s out front, he knows it.

250 Analysis

Well… the 250s delivered fireworks, and now we’re set up for the most anticipated race of the season next weekend.

Moto 1 was business as usual: Deegan to the front, checks out, race over. He even tipped it over once and still never had the win threatened. But Moto 2? That was chaos.

Kitchen slammed Deegan early which resulted in Deegan’s front brake snapping in the process. From there, his night was cooked. He toughed it out to 14th, but 1-14 scores only netted him sixth overall. Meanwhile, his biggest contender Shimoda went 2-2 for the win and, with double points in play, Deegan is now backed into a corner.

Here’s the gist going into Vegas: Shimoda only needs a second overall to clinch the title. Deegan knows it, and no one’s sure how he’ll respond. Do we see team tactics from Star? Does Deegan try to block Shimoda from finishing second? No one knows, and that’s what makes it fun. Love him or hate him, Deegan brings raw emotion, and that pulls in the views.

Track Breakdown:

Lap Time Breakdown:

Track conditions shifted noticeably for the 250s, which is standard. The crew cleaned things up after the wildcard races, so Moto 1 had a fresh, smooth surface for fast opening laps before lines really developed. Deegan was electric early, clocking a 1:11.79, quicker than Jett’s 1:12.29 from the first 450 moto. But once the ruts set in, Deegan’s median fell to 1:14.16 versus Jett’s 1:13.48.

The 250s showed solid consistency, but the class’s youth kept their scores a tick lower than the 450s overall. Still, the results pointed more toward supercross-style stability than outdoor roughness.

Moto 1 Fast Laps (17 Timed Laps)

• Deegan: 11
• Anstie, Hammaker: 2
• Shimoda, Thrasher: 1

Class Average Consistency: 81.2
Class Median Consistency: 87.1

Moto 1 Fast Laps (16 Timed Laps)

• Vialle: 5
• Hammaker: 3
  
• Bennick, Shimoda, Thrasher: 2
• Davies, Masterpool: 1

Class Average Consistency: 86.9
Class Median Consistency: 88.4

250 Moto 1 Analysis

Rider's sorted by median lap time.

Top Performances:

This moto was all Deegan. He ran a quarter second per lap quicker than Shimoda, with a best lap half a second faster. And Shimoda, to his credit, was torching everyone else.

The pleasant surprise was Max Anstie. After a long road back from a broken leg in SX, he’s slowly climbing back to speed. Watching him inch toward the front was encouraging.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:

Deegan’s blistering opening pace cost him in consistency once he settled down, and the same applied to the rest of the front-runners. But once you drop down to riders without that insane sprint speed, the picture looked different. Max Anstie topped the field with a 93.2.

Lap 99 Analysis:

Deegan’s Lap 99 was flat-out bonkers, over a second quicker than Shimoda’s. Even Shimoda’s best theoretical pace was still half a second off Deegan’s actual fast lap.

250 Moto 2 Analysis

Rider's sorted by median lap time.

Top Performances:

With Deegan essentially out of contention thanks to the brake issue, we got a glimpse of what this class might look like next year. Except Vialle won’t be part of it, he’s heading back to Europe.

That leaves Shimoda as the clear favorite heading into 2026, both in SX and MX. And while Vialle lacked Shimoda’s overall pace (he only logged the fourth-fastest lap), his median time edged Shimoda’s by just 0.09 seconds. The top five were insanely close, all within 0.7 seconds per lap.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:

Consistency jumped significantly in Moto 2. Schwartz led the way with a 95, and Anstie once again impressed with another 93.2. Deegan even managed a 92.9 without a rear brake.

Lap 99 Analysis:

Lap 99 times were tight in Moto 2, but Thrasher had the edge. Could he be the teammate Deegan leans on in Vegas? Thrasher has always been strong on speedway-style tracks.