Moto Metrics: '25 Tampa

February 10, 2025 Arich Knaub

Key Highlights:

Destined for Victory: Malcolm Stewart’s Lap 99 time was two seconds faster than his best recorded lap, proving he had even more speed in reserve. He dominated Chase Sexton’s lap times in 16 of 22 laps and was set to take the lead regardless of Sexton’s crash on Lap 18.
Racing Incidents: Ken Roczen has every reason to be frustrated after his incident. Before crashing out, he averaged the fastest lap time of any rider on track, beating the field by 0.2 seconds per lap.
A Perfect Night: Max Anstie was unstoppable, going undefeated on the day. He topped qualifying, won his heat race, and took the main event victory. Anstie was also remarkably consistent, posting the second-best consistency score in the 250 class and outscoring every 450 rider.
On the Radar: Cullin Park delivered a standout performance, tying his career-best finish with seventh place. More impressive, he topped every rider with a staggering 97 consistency score. His fastest and average lap times were separated by just 0.4 seconds.
Beach Day: Tampa proved to be the toughest track of the season so far, posting the lowest LITPro consistency scores. Unsurprisingly, the deep sand rhythm lane was the biggest challenge, with an average consistency score of just 60.

450 Analysis:

A wild night of racing in Tampa will go down in the history books. The press will be busy all week covering the many storylines—from Tomac's injury in qualifying to Roczen's incident with a lapper leading to a DNF, and Malcolm Stewart's first 450 Supercross win at 32 years old. Last Saturday night did not disappoint.

On paper, the track layout may have appeared similar to most Supercross tracks, but a longer faster whoop section, deep beach sand, and tight rhythm lanes created absolute chaos.

Track Breakdown:

The track map above highlights which riders had the fastest average sector times throughout the main event. However, the map doesn't quite do the track justice. At first glance, it would seem Chase Sexton was dominant—he did lead 18 laps, after all. But victory was never secure. He was rarely the fastest rider on the track, as both Cooper Webb and Malcolm Stewart were consistently quicker. The two sectors where they had the edge over Sexton were the whoops and the sand rhythm lane.

The track proved challenging for most riders, regardless of position. Tampa had the lowest LITPro consistency scores of the season throughout all sectors. Unsurprisingly, the deep sand rhythm lane (S8) was the most difficult, with an average consistency score of just 60. Even Cooper Webb, the fastest rider through the sand, struggled to maintain consistency.

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	A. Plessinger	2.06	1.99	85.4
2	C. Sexton	8.47	8.18	82.6
3	J. Savatgy	9.21	8.86	77.2
4	K. Roczen	6.26	6.05	81.3
5	C. Sexton	4.76	4.51	69.1
6	C. Sexton	4.85	4.62	89.5
7	M. Stewart	9.70	8.80	87.4
8	C. Webb	8.90	8.22	58.7

Lap Time Breakdown:

The lap time histogram above illustrates how the track layout separated the pack more than usual. The saddle shape suggests there were two groups of riders—those consistently hitting 55-57 second lap times and those stuck in the 60+ second range. This was evident in how quickly lapped traffic came into play. In Chase Sexton's heat race, he lapped up to 13th place. In the main event, lapped riders extended up to 9th place, including several factory riders.

Since many sectors were difficult to navigate consistently, overall lap-time consistency suffered as well. The average 10-lap consistency score in the 450 class was just 84, a notable drop for a group that has averaged above 90 multiple times this season.

Two riders stood out, Cooper Webb and race winner Malcolm Stewart, were blazing fast. Out of the 22 timed laps, the duo accounted for 13 of the fastest laps. Surprisingly, Webb recorded the most fastest laps, with seven. Stewart had 6. Despite leading over 80% of the race, Sexton only set the fastest lap time three times.

450 Main Event:

RIDER	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
K. Roczen	55.52	54.54	53.01	83.1
M. Stewart	55.76	54.01	52.09	86.4
C. Webb	56.06	54.32	52.24	86.6
J. Anderson	56.51	55.06	53.60	92.0
J. Cooper	56.58	55.39	54.17	90.1

Top Performances:

Ken Roczen had every right to be frustrated after his incident. Before crashing out, he held the fastest average lap time of any rider on the track by 0.2 seconds per lap. While a race win may have been out of reach, he was on pace for a podium finish and a chance to reclaim the points lead. But racing incidents happen. It's just part of the sport we love.

Malcolm Stewart, however, looked unstoppable. As we will cover later, he had Sexton's number on nearly every lap and was closing in fast. Despite recording just six fastest laps, once Roczen was removed from the equation, Stewart was the quickest rider on track by an average of 0.3 seconds per lap.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency Scores:

Jason Anderson appeared to be in contention for the win early on, but he ultimately lacked the outright pace. However, he was easily the most consistent rider, and that consistency rewarded him with a podium finish. Only four riders—Anderson, Chisholm, Nichols, and Cooper—scored above 90 in consistency. Anderson topped them all with an impressive 92.

Lap 99 Analysis:

*Lap 99 takes each riders' best segment time regardless of lap and combines them as a theoretical best lap time.

What’s fascinating is how much potential speed was left on the table due to the track’s difficulty. The best theoretical lap time, using the fastest sector times from any rider throughout the night, was 50.7 seconds, a staggering four seconds faster than the best actual lap time in the main event. Even individual riders had more speed in reserve.

Malcolm Stewart, for instance, had a Lap 99 time that was two seconds quicker than his best recorded lap. Ricky Carmichael summed it up best on the broadcast: Stewart looked comfortable and could have maintained that pace all night. It’s clear he had even more speed at his disposal.

Head-to-Head:

For the first 18 laps, Chase Sexton may have been leading, but Stewart was closing in fast. Sexton only managed to beat Stewart in lap times on six of the 22 laps. In contrast, Stewart frequently outpaced Sexton by more than a full second per lap. Check out the lap time advantage chart below.

Although Sexton’s crash in the whoops on lap 18 officially handed Stewart the lead, it was evident that Stewart was going to pass him at that moment regardless. After the crash, Sexton looked completely unsettled and dropped to fifth place over the final four laps.

250 Analysis:

The trip to Tampa introduced a brand-new coast of riders, as the 250 East Coast Championship made its debut. Widely regarded as one of the most stacked 250 fields of all time, the racing was just as dramatic as expected. What few predicted, however, was just how fast Pierce Brown would be. Unfortunately, he went down hard in the whoops and has since undergone surgery for a fractured T5 vertebra. Our thoughts are with him as he recovers.

With Brown out, 250 veteran Max Anstie took the season-opening victory. Just as impressive was Daxton Bennick finishing second, while Cameron McAdoo rounded out the podium despite racing with a torn ACL.

The track proved just as—if not more—treacherous for the 250s in Tampa. However, Anstie and Bennick performed exceptionally well for Star Racing. Anstie was clearly the fastest rider through the whoops, rivaling even Malcolm Stewart’s times in that section. McAdoo also looked strong in the sand—he was the only rider consistently doubling through it all night, making him incredibly quick. You wouldn’t have guessed he was racing with a torn ACL at all.

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	L. Kitchen	2.09	2.00	72.5
2	D. Bennick	8.21	7.92	81.6
3	H. Munoz	9.49	9.02	81.3
4	M. Anstie	6.43	6.22	81.7
5	T. Vialle	4.66	4.43	67.9
6	D. Bennick	4.90	4.75	82.4
7	M. Anstie	9.98	9.40	57.6
8	C. McAdoo	9.05	8.64	77.5

Lap Time Breakdown:

The lap time chart above highlights just how deep the East Coast field is. Unlike the West Coast series, there wasn’t as much separation between riders. In fact, over 75% of the lap times for the field were under 60 seconds—matching the 450 class.

Additionally, the 250 class seemed to make fewer mistakes. For the first time this season, the 250s outperformed the 450s in consistency scoring. Perhaps this was because they raced earlier in the night when the track wasn't as broken down, but the East Coast class also boasts a lineup of veteran riders like Anstie, McAdoo, Hampshire, and Kitchen.