Key Highlights:

• A League of His Own: Chase Sexton dominated RedBud with the fastest lap times in both motos and the fastest average lap times. His performance in Moto 2 was particularly impressive, his average lap time was nearly 1.3 seconds faster than his next closest competitor.
  
  
• 250 Chaos: The 250 class saw significant shifts between motos, with different riders dominating each race. Chance Hymas stood out with unmatched speed in Moto 1 and improved consistency in Moto 2, leading to his overall victory.
  
  
• Taking a Chance: Looking at the best segment time in both motos of the 450 class, the ideal fastest lap time (Lap 99) was 2:04.17. Chance Hymas, by himself, set a Lap 99 time of 2:03.98 in Moto 1.
  
  
• From Hunter to Hunted: With all eyes on him this weekend, Hunter Lawrence looked to dominate Moto 1 until a hard crash derailed his weekend. Despite this, the tough Australian set 10-Lap LITPro consistency scores of 92.3 and 89.3 in Moto 1 and 2 respectively.
  
  
• Greatest Dirt of Earth: The lap times for the 450 class were remarkably similar between Moto 1 (2:18.2 average) and Moto 2 (2:18.9 average), emphasizing the track's excellent conditions throughout the day.

As "America's Motocross Track", RedBud has been holding AMA National Racing since 1974. Known for the iconic LaRocco's Leap and its world famous dirt, RedBud is a favorite among motocross fans, especially since it often hosts its race on the Fourth of July. 

450 Analysis:

This week, the Lawrence Brothers turned into just "The Lawrence." Jett Lawrence, the reigning 450 MX Champion, now sits out the remainder of the season due to a practice injury that required surgery. This left Hunter Lawrence as the sole representative of Team HRC Honda, and he was also the current points leader. But the spotlight shifted to another rider this weekend.

Chase Sexton had a near-perfect weekend. He topped the qualifying charts by nearly a second and a half and went on to win both motos. He especially dominated in Moto 2, taking the points lead in the process. Hunter Lawrence, on the other hand, had a tough weekend. He suffered a nasty crash while leading in Moto 1, which likely affected his performance for the rest of the weekend.

Track Breakdown:

This week, I decided to break down segment times by each moto to show how different riders dominated various parts of the track. Although the best average segment times for each moto were nearly the same (within half a second), the riders who excelled in each segment were quite different.

Check out the track maps above: Chase Sexton and Hunter Lawrence were the only two riders who posted the fastest average segment times in any part of the track for both motos. Interestingly, neither rider was fastest in the same section for both motos.

The tables below highlight this even more. Segment 1 had the biggest spread in LITPro Consistency Scores, showing it was the toughest part of the track. Segment 3 was also more challenging than the rest of the track.

Moto 1: 

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	H. Lawrence	44.913	43.796	83.7
2	A. Plessinger	26.923	36.037	78.5
3	H. Lawrence	24.348	23.553	83.0
4	J. Cooper	14.842	14.352	85.7
5	C. Sexton	18.010	17.165	74.8

 Moto 2:

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	C. Sexton	44.906	44.031	84.8
2	C. Sexton	27.095	26.014	82.3
3	C. Sexton	24.735	24.072	87.3
4	H. Lawrence	14.502	14.110	83.2
5	M. Stewart	18.851	18.247	82.8

 

 

Lap Time Breakdown:

RedBud was unique this season because it was the first race where the times didn't change much between motos. Last week at Southwick, the track got slower as it broke down, and at High Point, it got faster as it dried out. But RedBud stayed fast, even as deep braking bumps developed.

Take a look at the histogram above. It shows the most common lap time groups for both motos. Usually, we see a big difference in lap times between motos, but here, they were almost identical.

• In Moto 1, the average lap time for all 40 riders was 2:18.169. In Moto 2, it was 2:18.900. Although the track did slow down a bit, it was still less than a second. The range of lap times widened by about 3 seconds in Moto 2, but it's still impressive that 40 unique riders are able to keep the spread within 3 seconds across two full races. This track developed early, allowing riders to make adjustments for the second moto.
  
  
• Chase Sexton was the fastest rider in both motos. He dominated by setting 6 of the 15 fastest laps in Moto 1 and 9 of the 15 fastest laps in Moto 2. Hunter Lawrence was the only other rider to set more than 3 fast laps in a Moto, which he claimed 5 of 15 in Moto 1.
  
  
• If we take the fastest segment times achieved by any 450 rider, the ideal fastest lap (Lap 99) would be around 2:04.171. This is theoretically possible in a race since Chase Sexton posted a 2:04.902 in qualifying. Yet the pressures of a race, and constantly changing track conditions make it nearly impossible to achieve.

450 Moto 1 Top 5 Average Lap Times 

RIDER	MOTO	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
C. Sexton	M1	2:09.508	2:07.062	2:05.85	89.5
J. Cooper	M1	2:10.594	2:08.236	2:07.02	90.4
H. Lawrence	M1	2:10.744	2:07.459	2:05.52	92.3
A. Plessinger	M1	2:10.926	2:07.947	2:07.37	83.6
J. Anderson	M1	2:13.111	2:08.377	2:07.86	81.1

450 Moto 2 Top 5 Average Lap Times 

RIDER	MOTO	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
C. Sexton	M2	2:10.274	2:07.511	2:06.37	82.5
A. Plessinger	M2	2:11.528	2:08.305	2:07.65	83.8
H. Lawrence	M2	2:11.954	2:09.626	2:08.43	89.3
J. Anderson	M2	2:12.257	2:08.947	2:07.36	85.0
D. Ferrandis	M2	2:12.499	2:10.295	2:08.85	91.1

 

Overall Performance:

• Chase Sexton was on fire all weekend. He set the fastest lap times in both motos and had the fastest average lap times as well. In Moto 1, he was a full second quicker on average than the second fastest rider. In Moto 2, he increased that gap to nearly 1.3 seconds.
• The Cowboy, Aaron Plessinger, quietly had himself a day at the Bud. Clearly, he made some key bike changes between motos, going from the fourth fastest rider in Moto 1 to the second fastest in Moto 2.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency Scores:

• Before his gnarly crash in Moto 1, Hunter Lawrence led most of the race and did so convincingly. His 10-Lap LITPro consistency score was 92.3, one of the highest we've seen in a pro race.
• Justin Cooper and Dylan Ferrandis, continue to be one moto wonders. Cooper had the second highest score in Moto 1, and Ferrandis topped the charts in Moto 2. Yet, neither can seem to find the speed and consistency for both motos this season. Cooper had great consistency both motos, but fell off the pace by nearly 3 seconds in Moto 2. 

Lap 99 Analysis:

*Lap 99 takes each riders' best segment time regardless of lap and combines them as a theoretical best lap time.

• In Moto 1, Lawrence and Sexton were in a league of their own. Their ideal Lap 99 was nearly two seconds faster than the rest of the top five, showing they were pushing the pace the entire race.
• Aaron Plessinger's fastest lap in Moto 1 was just half a second off his Lap 99 time, meaning he hit most of his fastest segment times in one lap before settling into a steadier pace. That lap was his first timed lap. 

Lap Time Distribution for Top 10 

The box-and-whisker plot above shows the spread of lap times for the top 10 fastest riders. Generally, the smaller the box, the more consistent the rider was during the race. Chase Sexton was in a league of his own in Moto 2. Once he took the lead, he never looked back, and his average lap time was better than most riders' best laps.

Take a look at Justin Cooper in Moto 2. While his speed can be hit or miss, he was incredibly consistent in Moto 2. In fact, Cooper had the third highest overall consistency for the day. However, it was Christian Craig who took the top spot in LITPro consistency scoring among the top 10. The Rockstar Husqvarna rider is quietly becoming a serious contender again after years of recovery.

Power Rankings:

Putting everything together, rankings for each rider can be established. The table below showcases the key metrics used to determine the weekend's top riders and is crucial for shaping weekly power rankings.

  *Coloring from red-to-green only highlights disparity between top 10 and not representative of the entire field. All of these riders are near the top compared to the rest of the riders. 

Unsurprisingly, Chase Sexton scored the highest points on the day with 98.1 of 100 possible points. He was followed by Hunter Lawrence (91.8) and Aaron Plessinger (90.8).

Cumulative Power Rankings:

Rank	Rider	Power Ranking	Change
1	Chase Sexton	93.9	+1
2	Hunter Lawrence	93.9	-1
3	Justin Cooper	87.7	+1
4	Aaron Plessinger	85.8	+1
5	Jason Anderson	80.8	+1
6	Dylan Ferrandis	78.5	NC
7	Malcom Stewart	74.9	+2
8	Christian Craig	64.0	NR
9	Shane McElrath	59.0	NR
10	Grant Harlan	57.2	NR

 

250 Analysis:

The 250 racing was a tale of two motos. In Moto 1, the freshly groomed track led to some of the fastest lap times all weekend. The race ended in a nail-biting finish between Haiden Deegan and Ty Masterpool, with Ty edging out Deegan in the final straightaway to claim his second moto victory of the season.

Moto 2 brought a wild turn of events. Deegan found himself buried in the pack (and later on the ground), and Masterpool couldn't keep up the pace. Meanwhile, Team Honda figured things out, with Hymas and Shimoda dominating. Hymas secured his second moto victory of the season and his first overall victory with 4-1 moto finishes.

 

Once again, I decided to break up the track maps between the two motos. In the 250 class, the motos were dominated by different riders. Interestingly, the riders who were the fastest on average in the most segments for both motos (Deegan in Moto 1 and Shimoda in Moto 2) both finished second to riders with fewer fastest average segments.

We often talk about the 'yo-yo' effect in racing, where riders gain and lose time against their competitors around the track. This dynamic was perfectly illustrated by Deegan and Masterpool in the track map above. As I'll discuss later, Shimoda had the upper hand on Hymas for most of Moto 2, but Hymas has something no other rider in the 250 class has: raw speed. Much like Jett or Roczen, Hymas can burst out with quick opening laps to create an early, manageable gap.

In the 450 races, segment 1 was the most difficult with the highest variance in LITPro consistency scoring. However, in the 250s, all segments were equally challenging except for segment 5, which had significantly lower variance than the rest of the track. Notably, every segment of the 250 racing had a higher variance in consistency scores compared to 450 showcasing the youth and inexperience of the class. 

Moto 1:

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	T. Masterpool	44.859	43.419	77.5
2	H. Deegan	26.871	26.030	76.5
3	H. Deegan	24.274	23.799	84.7
4	T. Masterpool	15.137	13.897	71.8
5	H. Deegan	16.611	18.030	70.3

 Moto 2:

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	J. Shimoda	45.039	44.530	90.0
2	J. Shimoda	26.832	26.033	75.3
3	C. Hymas	24.598	24.206	84.7
4	J. Shimoda	15.474	15.209	82.7
5	J. Shimoda	18.550	17.995	78.8

Lap Time Breakdown:

Much like the 450 class, the 250s saw nearly identical lap times between motos. One rider stood out though, Chance Hymas. In Moto 1, Hymas was on fire, setting the fastest lap time of any rider in any class during a race with a 2:06.240. This was when the track was perfectly prepped at the beginning of the race, but his individual Lap 99 time of 2:03.98 was even faster than the best segments of the entire 450 group combined.

250 Moto 1 Top 5 Average Lap Times 

RIDER	MOTO	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
H. Deegan	M1	2:09.965	2:07.746	2:06.22	84.9
T. Masterpool	M1	2:10.010	2:06.917	2:05.40	85.7
T. Vialle	M1	2:11.455	2:06.615	2:06.04	80.2
J. Shimoda	M1	2:11.791	2:09.665	2:08.40	89.3
C. Hymas	M1	2:11.897	2:06.240	2:03.98	74.5

250 Moto 2 Top 5 Average Lap Times 

RIDER	MOTO	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
C. Hymas	M2	2:10.750	2:08.829	2:07.55	90.2
J. Shimoda	M2	2:10.759	2:09.339	2:08.01	91.1
L. Kitchen	M2	2:11.906	2:09.845	2:08.33	87.5
T. Vialle	M2	2:12.306	2:10.027	2:08.76	90.4
T. Masterpool	M2	2:12.842	2:09.583	2:08.24	85.7

Overall Performance:

• Chance Hymas had an outstanding day, setting the fastest lap in both motos and the fastest average lap time in Moto 2, beating his teammate by nine-thousandths of a second.
• Despite coming up short in Moto 1, Haiden Deegan was nearly a tenth of a second faster than Masterpool in Moto 1, but neither set the fastest lap of the race. That honor once again went to Hymas with a 2:06.240.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency Scores:

• Hymas' incredible speed often comes at a cost. He's struggled in Moto 1 this season, scoring in the low 70s again for consistency with a 74.5. However, he rebounded in Moto 2, making significant improvements with a score of 90.2.
• Shimoda has also been a much stronger rider in the second moto this season. The sensational Japanese rider not only had the highest consistency in Moto 2 but also the highest overall consistency of any rider in the top 10.

Lap 99 Analysis:

*Lap 99 takes each riders' best segment time regardless of lap and combines them as a theoretical best lap time.

• Chance Hymas' speed is unreal. As previously mentioned, his Lap 99 time in Moto 1 was a 2:03.98. He never materialized this into a single lap, as his best time was almost a second and a half slower. However, he managed that gap much better in Moto 2.
• Moto 2 generally saw the 250 class mellow out. Most riders in the top 5 had their Lap 99 times drop to the 2:08 range, with only Hymas breaking into the 2:07s.

Lap Time Distribution for Top 10

Power Rankings:

*Coloring from red-to-green only highlights disparity between top 10 and not representative of the entire field. All of these riders are near the top compared to the rest of the riders. 

Despite his inconsistency, moto wins tend to be the most important aspect of racing, which gave Chance Hymas the highest possible points of the weekend, a 98.2 out of 100. He was followed by Masterpool (93.8) and Vialle (91.0)