Key Highlights:

• A Battle of Fitness: In Moto 2, Chase Sexton showcased his superior training and fitness, overcoming the Lawrences and securing a decisive confidence boosting win. While the rest of the class fell victim to the beaches of Southwick, Sexton's average lap time was nearly half a second quicker.
  
  
• Deegan the Fastest in Either Class: Haiden Deegan dominated Moto 1 of the 250 class, leading every lap and setting the fastest lap time of 2:11.406, which was the quickest of both classes. His performance highlighted his exceptional sand riding skills and fitness.
  
  
• Consistency Challenges: The ever-changing sand conditions at Southwick significantly impacted rider consistency. The LITPro 10-Lap consistency scores were notably lower than usual. Only one rider, Justin Barcia, was able to post above a 90 in both motos. 
  
  
• A Wounded Jett: Jett Lawrence's performance in Moto 1 was remarkable, setting the fastest lap time at 2:12.262 and maintaining the best average lap time. His resilience in Moto 2, even with a shoulder injury, showcases his competitive edge.
  
  
• No Easy Days: LITPro consistency scores expose the difficulty of Southwick's sand. No section of the track was clearly more difficult. All sections of the track had a similar standard deviation leaving the riders with no breaks in their 30 minute motos.

Whether you call it Southwick, The Wick, or simply 338, America's most iconic sand track has been hosting professional racing for nearly 50 years. It's hard to pinpoint exactly what makes this New England track so special. Maybe it's the annual European invasion, the legendary locals, cool old guys, or the grueling motos, but Southwick never disappoints. This year was no different.

450 Analysis:

Chase Sexton finally managed to expose some weaknesses in the Lawrence brothers' dominance. He took Moto 2 in style, blasting past the competition with his KTM 450. Sexton's impressive fitness allowed him to outlast a wounded Jett and an inconsistent Hunter Lawrence. However, it was Jett Lawrence who ultimately took the overall win. He dominated Moto 1 and limped to a second place in Moto 2. Now, just three points separate the top three riders, with Hunter narrowly keeping his red plate.

Track Breakdown:

While Chase Sexton seemed to find an extra gear in Moto 2, passing both Lawrence brothers in the final 10 minutes, he only set the fastest lap in 8 of the laps. The rest of Moto 2 and nearly all of Moto 1 were dominated by Jett and Hunter. The map above shows the five live timing segments around the track. The Lawrence brothers held the best times in all five segments, once again showing just how strong the HRC Honda duo is. 

The table below highlights the top average time for each segment. The fastest time is the rider's best time, not necessarily the fastest time set in the segment. One interesting note: LITPro 10-Lap consistency scores are much lower than usual. This is true not only for the segments but also for lap times in both motos and classes. The ever-changing sand conditions made every lap a challenge for all riders. 

By looking at the distribution of LITPro consistency scores, we can identify which segment is the most difficult. The Wick takes no prisoners. The standard deviation of consistency scores in each segment was 21-22 points for each segment, demonstrating no segment was clearly more difficult than the rest. The track was difficult.

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	H. Lawrence	21.729	20.730	80.2
2	J. Lawrence	44.752	42.386	80.3
3	H. Lawrence	37.504	36.000	81.6
4	H. Lawrence	12.634	12.093	83.2
5	J. Lawrence	20.651	19.744	80.0

 

Lap Time Breakdown:

Even though the track saw a monsoon the weekend before, the sand allowed for excellent drainage. By the following Saturday, the track was perfect for sand racing. The histogram above shows the different lap times for both 450 Motos. At Southwick, it often comes down to a battle of fitness. With just over an hour of rest between their 30-minute motos, the deep sand makes it nearly impossible to match lap times between motos.

• Despite being injured, Jett Lawrence looked like his old self taking 9 of the 15 times lap times, and also set the fastest lap of Moto 1 by over one second with a 2:12.262.
  
  
• Fitness proved a pivotal factor in Moto 2. With the track conditions deteriorating lap after lap, the average lap time increased by over 5 seconds in Moto 2, and the standard deviation increased by over 11 seconds.
  
  
• Moto 1 lap times had a more traditional bell curve, with the top three riders logging significantly faster lap times than the rest of the pack, but Moto 2's grueling conditions equalized the playing field. 

450 Moto 1 Top 5 Average Lap Times 

RIDER	MOTO	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
J. Lawrence	M1	2:15.717	2:12.262	2:10.95	90.3
H. Lawrence	M1	2:15.953	2:13.206	2:12.35	86.8
C. Sexton	M1	2:16.573	2:13.008	2:11.96	84.1
J. Anderson	M1	2:19.209	2:15.463	2:14.72	89.6
J. Cooper	M1	2:19.351	2:16.402	2:15.34	85.7

450 Moto 2 Top 5 Average Lap Times 

RIDER	MOTO	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
C. Sexton	M2	2:19.472	2:16.010	2:14.21	85.4
J. Lawrence	M2	2:20.069	2:16.167	2:14.27	88.8
H. Lawrence	M2	2:20.169	2:15.697	2:14.57	78.4
A. Plessinger	M2	2:20.358	2:16.212	2:15.76	82.6
D. Ferrandis	M2	2:21.995	2:17.295	2:15.83	80.5

 

Overall Performance:

• In Moto 1, Jett Lawrence set the fastest lap time, 2:12.262, by nearly a second over Sexton and Hunter. He also had the best average lap time, closely followed by Hunter.
• In Moto 2, Chase Sexton took the spotlight. He had the top average lap time by over half a second and nearly set the fastest lap, running a 2:16.559 in lap 12.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency Scores:

• Southwick led to grueling conditions in both Motos. Only Jett Lawrence managed to score above 90 points for the top 5 riders in Moto 1. Hunter Lawrence, usually one of the most consistent riders, struggled in Moto 2 with a score of 78.4.
• In what might be his last race of the season, Justin Barcia was the most consistent rider overall, posting a combined score of 93.2 across both motos, making him the king of the sand.

Lap 99 Analysis:

*Lap 99 takes each riders' best segment time regardless of lap and combines them as a theoretical best lap time.

• The fastest segment time recorded gave a LITPro Lap 99 best possible time of 2:10.337. In Moto 1, Jett Lawrence's Lap 99 time was 2:10.95, making him the fastest man on the track. However, his shoulder injury became a significant challenge in Moto 2.
• The Lap 99 times highlight how tough Moto 2 was, with the best Lap 99 time, Chase Sexton's 2:14.21, being only a second and a half faster than the best recorded lap of Moto 1.

Lap Time Distribution for Top 10 

The box-and-whisker plot above shows the time differences between motos for most riders and highlights which riders were the most consistent. Generally speaking, a smaller box indicates a more consistent rider. In Moto 2, Chase Sexton's worst laps were significantly better than those of either Lawrence brother, demonstrating that Sexton's fitness is on another level.

Power Rankings:

Putting everything together, rankings for each rider can be established. The table below showcases the key metrics used to determine the weekend's top riders and is crucial for shaping weekly power rankings.

  *Coloring from red-to-green only highlights disparity between top 10 and not representative of the entire field. All of these riders are near the top compared to the rest of the riders. 

This week, Jett Lawrence once again finished at the top of the power rankings with 98.6 points after having nearly a perfect weekend. Chase and Hunter were both at 95 points. Here are the combined power rankings over the last four races, with a 10% decay rate per race. 

Latest Power Rankings:

Rank	Rider	Power Ranking	Change
1	Hunter Lawrence	94.6	NC
2	Chase Sexton	92.4	+1
3	Jett Lawrence	91.4	-1
4	Justin Cooper	88.0	NC
5	Aaron Plessinger	85.6	NC
6	Dylan Ferrandis	80.6	+1
7	Jason Anderson	80.0	-1
8	Justin Barcia	76.4	NC
9	Malcolm Stewart	72.4	NC
10	Freddie Noren	64.3	NC

 

250 Analysis:

The big story heading into the 250 race was all about Haiden Deegan's sand riding skills. It turns out all the sensational talent needed was a few practice days at The Wick before the race weekend. Deegan dominated Moto 1, leading every lap, and looked set to do the same in Moto 2 until a tip-over. Despite this, he showcased his incredible fitness and speed, charging towards the front and nearly taking first place in the final moments of the race.

While many had their eyes on favorite Tom Vialle, Deegan stole the show, but the Frenchman was still incredibly fast. Deegan learned the fast lines from the locals during his practice days, holding 4 of the 5 average fastest segment times. Only Tom Vialle managed to edge him out in the fifth segment.

Much like the 450 class, there wasn't a single segment that stood out as the most difficult. The standard deviation for LITPro consistency scores was 19-20 points for each segment. Sand riding is just tough. The 250 class consistently proves to be the more steady class week after week, possibly due to the smaller engine size.

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	H. Deegan	21.572	20.761	80.9
2	H. Deegan	44.672	42.104	81.4
3	H. Deegan	37.506	35.444	81.7
4	H. Deegan	12.674	12.148	80.3
5	T. Vialle	20.762	19.727	78.8

 

Lap Time Breakdown:

The 250 class showed considerably more consistency than the 450 class. Both motos had a more typical bell curve for lap times. While the 250s also saw about a 5-second difference between motos, their standard deviation only increased by 6 seconds. Haiden Deegan set a blistering fast lap in Moto 1 with a 2:11.406, the fastest lap of either class. However, as Southwick proves, each race becomes increasingly harder. Since the 250s went first in both motos, they had the better track conditions.

250 Moto 1 Top 5 Average Lap Times 

RIDER	MOTO	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
H. Deegan	M1	2:16.260	2:11.406	2:10.47	82.4
T. Vialle	M1	2:17.046	2:12.538	2:11.53	86.5
J. Swoll	M1	2:17.128	2:15.649	2:15.07	91.2
L. Kitchen	M1	2:17.218	2:15.299	2:14.32	93.8
C. Hymas	M1	2:17.259	2:12.750	2:12.35	70.4

250 Moto 2 Top 5 Average Lap Times 

RIDER	MOTO	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
J. Shimoda	M2	2:18.109	2:16.230	2:14.14	90.0
H. Deegan	M2	2:18.733	2:14.586	2:12.59	86.7
T. Vialle	M2	2:19.358	2:14.461	2:13.40	86.3
J. Smith	M2	2:20.582	2:16.762	2:15.44	89.0
C. Hymas	M2	2:20.946	2:16.008	2:15.51	82.4

Overall Performance:

• Haiden Deegan was on another level in Moto 1. His fastest average lap time was eight-tenths of a second quicker than the next best, and his fastest lap time was over a second faster than the next closest.
• The 250 class is deep, with the average lap time distribution for second through fifth being under a quarter of a second. Jalek Swoll was incredibly fast and consistent until his Triumph 250 gave out.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency Scores:

• Despite what many might consider a lackluster performance, Levi Kitchen quietly had a great day at the beach, posting a moto-best score of 93.8. However, he couldn't maintain his consistency in Moto 2, dropping to 86.2.
• The veterans had a strong showing in both classes, with Joey Savatgy posting the best overall consistency score across both motos with a 90.45.

Lap 99 Analysis:

*Lap 99 takes each riders' best segment time regardless of lap and combines them as a theoretical best lap time.

• Haiden Deegan clearly separated himself from the rest of the 250 class. His Lap 99 best possible time of 2:10.47 was also the best of either class, and he was the only rider with a 2:12 in Moto 2. Even the best 450 time was in the 2:14s.
• Tom Vialle, living in Deegan's shadow all weekend, posted the fastest lap time of Moto 2 with a 2:14.461, and his Lap 99 times prove he was the only rider capable of keeping pace with Deegan.

Lap Time Distribution for Top 10

Power Rankings:

*Coloring from red-to-green only highlights disparity between top 10 and not representative of the entire field. All of these riders are near the top compared to the rest of the riders. 

Haiden Deegan had himself a day. With a nearly perfect day from start to finish, he topped out the power rankings with a 98.0. Vialle was the only other rider in the 90s with a 94.9. Hymas wrapped out the top three with an 88.9.